Turkey’s Alican border crossing into Armenia is at the end of a peaceful spur. Shepherds tend their flocks in the surrounding fields, and occasionally a tractor kicks up dust that hangs in the air. Even the military bunkers scattered across the landscape seem half asleep in the sun.
Still, Turkey hopes that this quiet cul-de-sac can soon become part of a global trade hub. Earlier this year, officials began installing the systems needed to process passports at the border, which was closed for 32 years — a move that could open up a crucial trade route connecting Asia to Europe.
The project, supported by the US president as part of the peace plans for Armenia and Azerbaijan, even has a grandiose name: the ‘Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity’ (TRIPP).
The geopolitical interests are great. The eventual reopening of the Armenian border is part of Ankara’s efforts to position Turkey as a safe trade hub for goods and energy flows diverted away from the geopolitical chokepoint – especially the war-threatened Strait of Hormuz.
“We don’t know when the border will open, the date is constantly changing,” said a Turkish border guard during a recent visit. “But everyone thinks it will happen soon.”
Since Tehran first proposed closing the strait last June, Ankara has intensified efforts to market Turkey as a stable alternative trade corridor. That tone has intensified as conflict and sanctions have disrupted traditional routes through Russia, Iran, the Red Sea and the Gulf.
“Turkey stands out as an island of stability and a safe haven,” President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said last week. “Discussions have begun on safer alternatives to energy transmission lines,” he added. “We wholeheartedly believe that this global crisis will open new doors for our country.”
The vision is compelling, even if it faces enormous obstacles that many expect will thwart Turkey’s grand ambitions.
NATO member Turkey has avoided direct involvement in both the war in Ukraine and the recent Gulf conflict. Its territory has already become a de facto transit zone: last month, commercial flights between Europe and Asia were diverted over Turkey as airspace in the north and south shrank.
“Trade between Europe and Asia amounts to about $3 trillion a year, and 90 percent goes by sea,” said Binali Yıldırım, a former prime minister involved in promoting Turkish trade routes. “The shortest [marine] the journey takes about 40 days.”
By contrast, the Middle Corridor – the overland route connecting China to Europe via the Caucasus and Turkey that Ankara is promoting – “could take 12 to 15 days,” he said. Current trade flows are small, but “there is great potential”.
European officials seem enthusiastic. EU Commissioner Marta Kos described Turkey this year as “a crucial partner” and called the proposed expansion of the Central Corridor a “game changer”.
“Developing alternative routes has become a necessity,” Turkish Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloğlu said in February, days before the US and Israel launched massive airstrikes against Iran.
Two projects are central to Ankara’s vision. The first is the Development Road, a road and rail network connecting the Gulf to Europe via Turkey, bypassing maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal. But it is still in the planning stages, requires billions of dollars in investment and passes through volatile Iraq.
“It would be easier to travel through Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria,” said a regional transport economist. “Maybe it could happen in ten years.”
The second project, an extension of the Middle Corridor, is more promising. Its centerpiece is the TRIPP – a US-sponsored road and rail link between Turkey and Azerbaijan that passes through Armenia and adds needed capacity to an existing route through Georgia.
Unveiled to much fanfare at the White House in February, along with a tentative peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan, TRIPP is partly intended to end their four-decade conflict. Turkey has indicated it will reopen its border once a final peace deal is reached, allowing work on the TRIPP to begin.
“A great honor for me,” Donald Trump said at the time.
Turkish construction companies such as Kalyon, which are close to Ankara and have built flagship state projects such as Istanbul’s new airport, have started work on the Azerbaijani side, as well as railway extensions in Turkey, according to Azerbaijani officials.
If completed, the Middle Corridor’s trade volumes, which have tripled between 2021 and 2025, could increase from 5 million tons per year to 20 million tons, according to Yildrim. But there are several complexities.
The route relies on slow ferry crossings across the Caspian Sea, uneven rail infrastructure with varying track gauges, and complex customs procedures across multiple borders. That makes it much slower than the Northern Corridor, which connects China to Europe via a direct rail link through Russia and already carries 40 million tons of freight a year.
The Middle Corridor is a route “that everyone needs, but few choose to use,” as investment bank JPMorgan described it in a recent report.
The TRIPP also bypasses Iran, leaving it vulnerable to attack. Russia, which traditionally dominates the Caucasus, is also concerned. Earlier this month, President Vladimir Putin warned Armenia could curb Russian gas supplies to the country if it continued to reorient its trade flows toward Europe.
“The problem with the TRIPP is that it is one of many transportation options,” said a logistics manager who advised on the project. “It only became possible because Russia was distracted by the war in Ukraine. The route is close to Iran – which is another risk. It also depends on US financing and political support.”
Turkey’s geographical location – which “condemns the country to geopolitical significance,” as one Western diplomat put it – all but guarantees its role as a logistics hub linking Europe, Asia and the Middle East.
More than 3.5 million barrels of oil already pass through the Bosphorus every day, and a 1,700 km pipeline from Baku to the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean Sea already transports up to 1.2 million barrels of oil per day.
After Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq and Kurdistan agreed to reopen the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline with a capacity of 250,000 barrels per day. TRIPP could even revive the dormant Trans-Caspian pipeline project, which would transport 1 trillion cubic meters of gas from Central Asia to Europe via Turkey.
But trade officials and economists warn that the idea of land routes through Turkey that will provide a near-term alternative to maritime chokepoints in the Gulf — or even to Russia’s established Northern Corridor — is a pipe dream.
As for TRIPP, its future depends as much on politics as on technology. The last time the US president lent his name to a project in the Caucasus – Trump Tower Baku – it fell apart amid allegations of corruption and links to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards – and was never opened.
Cartography by Jana Tauschinski
