The conflict with Iran appears to be coming to an end. If the fragile ceasefire holds, President Donald Trump could stand before the American people in the coming days and declare victory – reopening shipping lanes, restoring deterrence and humiliating the ayatollahs. On the face of it, that would be a real achievement.
The Iran campaign was not wrong. It was a legitimate strategic imperative to confront a nuclear-threshold regime that financed terrorism on three continents and threatened international shipping lanes. Trump acted where others hesitated.
But every resulting action has second- and third-order consequences – and the consequences now unfolding far exceed what a victory headline can contain.
While Washington has been crushing Iran’s military infrastructure, something far more serious is hardening in the background: a strategic alignment between China, Russia and Iran that is accelerating the rupture of the post-Cold War world order – and that rupture now runs directly through the transatlantic alliance itself.
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FILE: In this photo released by Xinhua News Agency, Chinese and Russian warships participate in joint naval exercises in the East China Sea, December 27, 2022. (Xu Wei/Xinhua via AP, file)
Xi’s signal cannot be ignored
On April 15, Chinese President Xi Jinping said during a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Beijing that ties between China and Russia are particularly “precious” amid global turbulence. He called for “closer and stronger strategic cooperation” to reform the international order in what he described as a “more just and reasonable direction.”
That is not a diplomatic standard. That’s a geopolitical statement.
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Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov sharpened the message at the same meeting in Beijing, declaring that Iran has an “inalienable” right to enrich uranium — a direct, public rebuke of Trump’s nuclear demand for zero enrichment, and evidence that Moscow is not only monitoring this conflict, but also actively protecting Tehran’s nuclear position.
Xi and Putin watched from the sidelines during the war in Iran – but did not stand still. According to a Ukrainian intelligence analysis reviewed by Reuters, Russia provided Iran with satellite imagery and cyber support – unconfirmed, but consistent with Moscow’s pattern of proxy warfare.
Russia also publicly called on Washington to abandon the “language of ultimatums” on Tehran, proposed seizing Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium, and benefited from a windfall when Brent crude rose to $120 a barrel – a price hike that directly financed Putin’s war of choice in Ukraine just as US forces were trapped in the Gulf.
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Chinese support ended before there was any actual confirmed combat involvement, but its strategic weight was considerable. Beijing bought more than 80% of Iran’s exported oil at discounted prices, keeping Tehran financially viable through the bombing. China-linked tankers continued to operate in Iranian oil transit even under blockade conditions.
Trump directly acknowledged the concerns, exchanging letters with Xi Jinping after hearing reports that Beijing was supplying shoulder-fired and anti-aircraft missiles to Tehran. Xi’s response, in Trump’s words, was: “basically he doesn’t” – and Trump threatened an additional 50% tariff if proven otherwise.
In January 2026, Iran, China and Russia formalized a comprehensive trilateral strategic pact – not a mutual defense treaty, but a framework for nuclear, economic and military coordination. The Center for Strategic and International Studies has been monitoring this emerging “CRINK” alignment – China, Russia, Iran and North Korea – and the data shows that it is hardening, not softening, under US military pressure.
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Naval units from Iran and Russia conduct a rescue simulation of a hijacked ship during joint naval exercises at the port of Bandar Abbas near the Strait of Hormuz in Hormozgan, Iran, on February 19, 2026. (Iranian Army/Anadolu/Getty Images)
This is the strategic trap Washington has fallen into. The pressure on Iran has not isolated Tehran; it tightened the shaft.
NATO is cracking under Washington’s watch
The war against Iran has done more damage to the Western alliance than any Russian influence operation in decades.
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Former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg reminded the world from the official NATO lectern that NATO is “a defensive alliance… that threatens no one” – an alliance built in 1949 to defend Western Europe against Soviet aggression, not to launch discretionary wars of choice in the Middle East.
When Trump demanded warships from NATO allies France, Germany, Italy and Britain – and separately from non-NATO partners Australia and Japan – to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, France, Germany, Italy, Britain, Australia and Japan all refused.
Trump called their refusal a stain on the alliance that will “never go away” and announced that he is strongly considering withdrawing the United States from NATO – calling it a “paper tiger.” The administration has since discussed withdrawing American troops from European territory.
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Jim Townsend, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Europe and NATO, put it plainly: “We are closer to a break than ever before.” Seventy-seven years of collective deterrence—the architecture that kept Soviet tanks out of Western Europe—is faltering, not because Putin outsmarted us, but because we broke it ourselves in the middle of a war in the Middle East.
Both understand that a United States alienated from its democratic allies is a United States strategically weakened — no matter how many Iranian bunkers lie in ruins.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance, center, walks with Pakistani Chief of Defense and Army Chief of Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, left, and Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar after arriving for talks with Iranian officials in Islamabad, Pakistan, Saturday, April 11, 2026. (Jacquelyn Martin/Pool via AP Photo)
The real battlefield is bigger than Iran
In three books — “Alliance of Evil” (2018), “Preparing for World War III” (2024)And “The New AI Cold War” (2026) – I have been following the civilization competition that is going on now. The war against Iran is a chapter of that.
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China and Russia have used this conflict as a live training exercise, studying U.S. airline operations, missile interception patterns and logistics flows in real time. Every signature revealed in the Gulf directly contributes to Beijing’s invasion planning of Taiwan.
Meanwhile, the December 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy still treats China and Russia as separate problems — a strategic blindspot that would have alarmed President Richard Nixon and his Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who have spent careers trying to prevent that very coalition.
Proverbs 11:14 says it clearly: “Where there is no guidance a nation falls, but in an abundance of counselors there is safety.” A strategy that isolates its allies and misreads its opponents is not strength. It is the architecture of ultimate defeat.
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The real question is not whether Trump can declare victory over Iran. Probably yes. The question is what that victory will cost: a NATO alliance pushed to the breaking point and a Sino-Russian partnership hardened by American overextension.
Competition among great powers is defined by the accumulation of agreements, relationships and credibility built or wasted over the years. Winning in Tehran and losing in Brussels and Beijing is not a net victory. It is a strategic setback cloaked in tactical success.
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President Trump has a dealmaker’s instincts. The time to make the crucial deals – with NATO, against the Axis – is now, before the victory speech becomes the final act rather than the opening of the next strategic chapter.
Because Xi Jinping doesn’t congratulate us. He is calculating.
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