Getting Iran to capitulate is like breaking a buck. Anyone who has done it – or even seen it happen – knows how this goes. Calm one minute, violent the next. You gain a step forward, but then you lose half back. The horse is testing you: your patience, your determination, your willingness to stay in the saddle when it tries to throw you.
That’s Iran.
And here’s the part the foreign policy commentary still doesn’t understand: Donald Trump actually understands this dynamic.
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Not from theory. From instinct.
Iran is not a normal negotiating partner. It’s not even a unified whole. Power is divided between clerics, politicians, intelligence services and, most importantly, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps – a state within a state that responds to ideology, money and survival.
And within that system are hardliners who don’t want a deal – period. These are people who would rather burn down their house than give up their nuclear potential, their offshore wealth and their grip on power. For them, a compromise is not a concession. It’s extinction.
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So when I hear the usual noise – why the mixed signals, why tough talk one day and restraint the next – I laugh. This criticism assumes that we are dealing with rational, Western negotiators who respond to consistency and a process of good faith.
We are not.
What Trump is doing – whether people like his style or not – is exactly what this situation calls for: pressure, pause, more pressure. Open a door and then make it very clear what happens when they try to play it. Keep them off balance. Let them guess. That’s not chaos. That’s leverage.
We are dealing with a regime that has spent 45 years perfecting delay, deceit and division. Show them a straight line and they will run circles around it. Telegraph your end game and they will beat you to death.
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What Trump is doing – whether people like his style or not – is exactly what this situation calls for: pressure, pause, more pressure. Open a door and then make it very clear what happens when they try to play it. Keep them off balance. Let them guess.
That’s not chaos. That’s leverage.
And this is where leverage really comes from – and it’s something most analysts miss or find too uncomfortable to say out loud.
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The leverage is the overwhelming military capability that has been amassed – and the very clear willingness to use it if the horse needs serious correction.
Not as a blunder. Not as background noise. As a credible, ever-present option.
Tehran understands that when push comes to shove, this is not an academic exercise. The same apparatus that can impose sanctions can also impose consequences – quickly and decisively – on leadership targets, command structures and critical infrastructure if the regime oversteps the mark or continues to play tricks.
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That reality changes behavior.
It forces calculations within a regime that has historically believed it could outlast, outmaneuver, or simply exhaust Western resolve. It introduces doubt where there used to be confidence. It intensifies the internal debate between those who want to test boundaries and those who understand the costs of going wrong.
This is essentially a test of will and might, taken to its logical conclusion.
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Most leaders don’t understand that. They look for an exit too early. They prioritize optics over results. They confuse activity with achievement.
Not Trump.
President Donald Trump walks to reporters before boarding Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, on April 10, 2026. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)
He understands that if you take it easy before the dynamic shifts, you won’t get a better deal – you’ll get played. He understands that credibility does not rest on statements; it is built on a demonstrated willingness to act. And he understands that regimes like Iran will only recalibrate when the alternative becomes unacceptable.
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That’s what’s happening now.
And yes, it makes people uncomfortable.
Turn on the TV and it’s a minute-by-minute panic cycle. Gas prices are rising – the latest news. A leak hits the wires – six hours of speculation. Who said what at 9am vs 3pm – treated as if it were dispositive.
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It’s noise.
This is not a daily trading strategy. This is a generational geopolitical game.
If we get this right, the benefit will be enormous. A truly non-nuclear Iran changes the entire equation in the Middle East. It removes the largest destabilizing force in the region.
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Imagine a world where Iran isn’t shooting at Israel, isn’t funding proxy militias in multiple theaters, and isn’t on the brink of a nuclear weapon. Even if the regime remains clerical, its ability to wreak havoc is dramatically reduced.
That opens the door to something real: trade, investment, standardization. Stronger economic ties between Israel, the Gulf States, the United States and beyond. Capital flows instead of capital flight. Stability instead of constant craftsmanship.
That’s what’s on the table.
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Now look at Europe.
Predictably, Europeans want to make the campaign contribution after the candidate has already won the election. They will criticize the tone, question the tactics and keep one foot in and one foot out – until the outcome is clear.
Then they show up and declare themselves indispensable.
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We’ve seen this movie before.
The reality is that without sustained American pressure – economic and military – there will be no deal worth having. No. Iran has no incentive to act unless it believes the alternative is significantly worse.
That’s what Trump restored: credibility.
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And credibility is everything in these types of negotiations.
What is needed now is discipline. Don’t doubt every tactical move. Don’t shy away every time there is volatility. Definitely don’t back out just because the process looks messy.
Of course it’s messy. It should be so.
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Breaking a horse is messy. If you push too hard, you’ll be thrown out. If you relax too quickly, you will lose control. The key is left on long enough for the dynamics to change.
That’s what’s happening here.
The pressure is real. The Iranian economy is under pressure. The currency has taken repeated hits. The public dissatisfaction is not theoretical, but visible. And within the regime, the debate over how far they can push – and how much they can take – is becoming increasingly intense.
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That’s progress.
No signing ceremony. Not a proper press release. Busy.
So let’s catch our breath for a moment.
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Stop obsessing over hourly gas prices. Stop parsing every headline like it’s the last chapter. This is a long game and it is played at a level that requires patience and courage.
The stakes are enormous. A neutered, non-nuclear Iran removes the last major obstacle to a more stable, prosperous Middle East – a country where trade, not terror, defines its relationships.
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Process won’t get you there. With pressure you will get there.
And despite all the noise, that’s exactly what Trump delivers.
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He stays in the saddle.
And that’s how you destroy the horse.
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