The midterm elections are quickly approaching, and while political pundits are focused on the battle for the U.S. House and Senate, a handful of gubernatorial races could have a significant impact on 2028.
Governors serve as their state’s highest executive branch, with broad authority to enforce laws, oversee state agencies, and manage the executive branch. These agencies shape everything from education to healthcare, business regulation, public safety, infrastructure and public health. Americans started arriving in November 36 states will go to the polls to decide who has power – and they must choose carefully.
While state politics are often overshadowed by Washington DC, nothing defines American daily life more than what happens at the state level – and the governor sits at the center of it all.
Voters should pay close attention to the gubernatorial races in Illinois, Maryland and Pennsylvania. Democratic governments. JB Pritzker, Wes Moore and Josh Shapiro are all seeking re-election as they quietly audition for 2028. The Democratic Party’s list of possible contenders is made up mostly of current or former governors — a notable shift from recent years of nominating candidates from Capitol Hill.
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With California Governor Gavin Newsom widely seen as the early Democratic front-runner for 2028, he has no voter burden this cycle, so the races in Illinois, Maryland and Pennsylvania could be the key referendum voters who will follow the Democratic model of government over the next two years. Their record offers a preview of how they might actually govern if they win the nomination.
Economically, high taxes and a complex regulatory environment have defined these states – and produced poor outcomes for the people who live there. With nearly 280,000 regulatory restrictions on the books, Illinois has the fourth-toughest regulatory code in the country.
As the state with the fourth toughest income tax system, Maryland is among the five worst states for tax competitiveness. Pennsylvania ranks third in childcare freedom, behind only New York and Vermont, raising costs for working families.
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In all three states, the overall tax and regulatory burden has made it increasingly expensive to simply stay put, and residents are starting to vote with their feet. IRS data shows that taxpayers in all three states are fleeing to lower-tax tax havens, taking billions in income with them.
The candidates’ performance in education is not improving. All three governors have eschewed growing support for school choice and alternative education options, choosing instead to bow to politically connected teachers unions over the interests of students and their families.
Pritzker’s first budget proposed eliminating Illinois’ only school choice program, and in 2023 lawmakers allowed it to expire completely, depriving nearly 10,000 low-income children, most of them Black or Hispanic, of their college scholarships. In Pennsylvania, Shapiro campaigned to support school choice, but ultimately bowed to union pressure and vetoed a $100 million scholarship program he had personally supported, abandoning the low-income families he had promised to help. Moore acted similarly. In 2023, he tried to cut funding for Maryland’s BOOST Scholarship program, which helps low-income children attend private schools.
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On energy, all three governors have pursued regressive green energy agendas that have come at high costs to consumers. Electricity prices in Illinois have risen about 15% in one year — more than double the national average — while Maryland residents have seen rates rise significantly since 2020.
Democratic governments. JB Pritzker, Wes Moore and Josh Shapiro are all seeking re-election as they quietly audition for 2028.
Pennsylvania tells a similar story: Despite being a state blessed with abundant natural gas and coal supplies, electricity rates have risen 46% since 2018, driven by green energy mandates, complex permitting, and the closure of baseload power plants — leaving the average Pennsylvanian paying $210 more annually than the national average. And Shapiro shows no signs of reversing course. If his energy agenda moves forward, Pennsylvania households could see their annual electricity costs nearly double, from $1,717 in 2023 to $3,471 in 2035.
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This data is important beyond the borders of Illinois, Maryland and Pennsylvania. Governors’ races rarely get the national attention they deserve, but this cycle is different. Names like California’s Gavin Newsom, Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer and Kentucky’s Andy Beshear are all part of the conversation in 2028, alongside Pritzker, Shapiro and Moore. For the first time in years, gubernatorial races offer a glimpse into what we could see in 2028.
Pritzker, Shapiro and Moore will spend the coming months trying to make the case that their states are better off under their leadership. Their voters — and a country that is estimating the next generation of Democratic contenders — should watch closely to see whether this case holds up.
