For years, Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro has defied predictions of collapse. Sanctions, diplomatic isolation and internal unrest have failed to dethrone him. But the Trump administration’s latest escalation — including the seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker and the enforcement of a blockade on sanctioned ships — has hit the regime where it is most vulnerable: its oil trade.
Although the US measure has caused concern among the population European alliesFord Maldonado, who warned that the escalation could undermine regional stability and complicate efforts for a political solution in Venezuela, said the government’s approach strikes at the core of Maduro’s power.
“What we are seeing now with President Trump’s order for a total blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela is a direct hit to Maduro’s revenue streams,” she said. “He needs the oil money from these tankers to buy loyalty and pay off generals, cartel partners and political enforcers to stay in power. That pipeline is finally being cut.”
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White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt was asked about the US seizure of an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela. (Planet Labs PBC/handout via Reuters)
According to Reuters, up to 11 million barrels of Venezuelan crude are currently stranded aboard 39 tankers anchored off the coast.
Jorge Jraissati, president of the Economic Inclusion Group, said the recent U.S. actions “fundamentally change the economics of Venezuelan oil exports.
“That oil is not sold or paid for,” Jraissati said. “Until these cargoes move, they will not generate cash flow for PDVSA and will increase Maduro’s liquidity pressure.” PDVSA is Venezuela’s state oil company.
Venezuela is one of the most oil-dependent countries in the world. Oil accounts for more than 80% of exports and about 90% of government revenues, making the country extremely vulnerable if crude supplies falter.
“After years of economic collapse due to Venezuela’s socialist policies, virtually all other sectors of the economy have gone bankrupt,” Jraissati noted.
A gas flare behind a coking coal pile at the Jose Antonio Anzotegui Petrochemical Complex in Barcelona, Anzoategui state, Venezuela, on Monday, May 22, 2023. (Carolina Cabral/Bloomberg/Getty Images)
US sanctions on Venezuelan oil have been in place since 2019, but enforcement has often lagged, and PDVSA has continued to move crude through intermediaries and opaque trading networks, mainly to Asia. The recent seizure of tankers appears to have changed that dynamic.
The Trump administration said the seized ship was headed to Cuba, but Jraissati argued that China was the most likely destination. “Tankers of that size are typically deployed on long-haul routes, and China accounts for about 60% of Venezuelan oil exports,” he said.
Not only has crude oil become harder to sell, but also cheaper. Venezuelan heavy crude is trading at discounts of up to $21 per barrel below Brent, according to sources quoted by Jraissati and confirmed by Reuters reporting.
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Newly released footage shows US forces securing a Venezuelan oil tanker. (@AGPamBondi via X)
“The seizure is already reshaping Venezuela’s oil trade,” he said. “PDVSA is facing stuck loads, increasing price discounts and new demands from buyers to renegotiate spot contracts.”
Oil tankers, carrying cargoes worth tens of millions of dollars, are now at greater risk when entering Venezuelan waters. This has caused buyers and shipowners to look for insurance and new conditions.
“In broad terms, this is a game-changing policy because it fundamentally changes the economics of oil exports from Venezuela,” Jraissati said. “Exports will not stop, but the conditions under which they are sold will deteriorate sharply. It will weaken Maduro’s cash flow.”
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An oil tanker is seen anchored in Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela, after loading crude oil at the port of the Bajo Grande refinery. (Jose Bula Urrutia/UCG/Universal Images Group/Getty Images)
For years, Venezuela has used a “shadow” or “dark” fleet — ships that disable tracking systems, exchange names and change flags — to move crude oil around sanctions. Jraissati said this network of ships tries to obscure ownership through shell companies and frequent reflagging.
Even these solutions are under pressure as insurers and ports grow wary of ships linked to Venezuelan crude.
Maduro is trapped with few retaliatory options after the Trump admin seized the Venezuelan oil tanker
American troops were seen climbing stairs on the ship. (@AGPamBondi via X)
Jraissati painted a grim picture of Venezuelan society already disintegrating under the economic collapse.
“80% of people in Venezuela live in poverty,” he said. “50% live in extreme poverty, meaning they earn less than $3 a day.”
He added that more than 30% of the population – about 8 million people – have left the country due to the ongoing crisis.
Jraissati warned that oil pressure alone will not topple Maduro, but described the current combination of sanctions, seizures and diplomatic isolation as unprecedented.
“This must be seen as a combination of actions. Oil pressure alone is not enough. Diplomatic pressure alone is not enough. But if all these measures are combined, Maduro is much more likely to actually fall,” he said.
Cale Brown, chairman of Polaris National Security and former chief spokesperson for the State Department, said authoritarian regimes often face sanctions by turning to illicit revenue streams.
The US will seize tens of millions of Venezuelan oil after intercepting a tanker, the White House says
Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela greets his supporters during a rally in Caracas on December 1, 2025. (Pedro Mattey/Anadolu via Getty Images)
“Regimes like Maduro’s show little concern about the impact of sanctions on their own people, and when traditional sources of income dry up, they turn to other lifelines, as Maduro has done with narcotics and other forms of illicit financing,” Brown said.
Still, Brown said Washington’s strategy reflects broader security concerns, drug and human trafficking and hostile foreign influence in the Western Hemisphere.
“President Trump is right to identify Venezuela as ground zero for many of the issues facing us in the Western Hemisphere,” Brown said.
Maduro has survived sanctions, protests and isolation before. But analysts say the current oil crackdown poses a direct threat to the regime’s ability to pay security forces, maintain patronage networks and keep the state functioning.
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In this April 13, 2019, file photo, Nicolas Maduro speaks, flanked by Defense Secretary Vladimir Padrino Lopez, right, and General Ivan Hernandez, second from right, head of both the Presidential Guard and Military Counterintelligence in Caracas, Venezuela. (Ariana Cubillos/AP Photo)
“It is very important that we continue to emphasize that Venezuela’s oil does not belong to Maduro or his cronies,” said Ford Maldonado. “It belongs to the Venezuelan people who made their choices clear at the ballot box last year and were robbed blind by the regime that continues to enrich itself and hijack the country’s main economic lifeline to stay in power. Cutting off that money is the fastest way to weaken the regime, and weakening the regime helps the Venezuelan people!”
