WILDWOOD, NJ – When you drive on Route 40 in southern New Jersey, you’re reminded why it’s called the Garden State. For Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciatarelli, these green fields and small Victorian towns are both an opportunity and a challenge.
Currently, Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill has a lead of about five points in the polling averages. But in 2024, when polls showed President Donald Trump losing New Jersey by double digits, he ended up losing by only six figures. Ciatarelli himself also exceeded poll expectations, even as he lost the 2021 governor’s race.
NJ SHOWDOWN: CIATTARELLI STACKS ON DEM RIVAL AFTER HEATED DEBATE WITH DESTRUCTIVE NEW ADS
Simply put—and both campaigns know this—if today’s polls diverge in a similar way to recent cycles, Ciatarelli might already be in the lead.
On Friday, the Republican candidate will headline a rally in the southern coastal town of Wildwood, joined by local officials and conservative personalities such as Jack Posobiec and Scott Presler.
The event underscores not only South Jersey’s importance in the race, but also the enthusiasm and voter interest Republicans need to increase turnout in this largely rural and exurban region.
Mikie Sherrill and Jack Ciatarelli face off in a gubernatorial debate as they compete to become New Jersey’s next governor. (Heather Khalifa/AP Photo)
In deep blue enclaves like Newark or Hoboken, a researcher can knock on a hundred doors in one block while trying to vote. And make no mistake: Public sector unions that support Sherrill will do just that and drive voters to the polls.
In much of Cape May County, however, that’s impossible. The houses are too far apart and the country is too sparsely populated.
It may not be the only way to overcome this ground game disadvantage, but one of the best is voter enthusiasm. That enthusiasm can also drive voters to the polls – albeit slightly less literally than a volunteer.
In Wednesday night’s debate, the last of the race, Ciatarelli worked hard to stay positive, focusing on issues like lowering energy prices — perhaps the biggest concern on voters’ minds — and improving infrastructure and education.
Tellingly, the highlight of Sherrill’s appearance was a bizarre accusation that her opponent was responsible for the deaths of “tens of thousands” of New Jerseyans because, as a medical publisher, he once owned printed materials on pain relief.
The accusation may be foolish, but the tactics are not. Ugly campaigns — with mud thrown far and wide — dampen voter enthusiasm, and that’s often a recipe for a Democratic victory in New Jersey.
Another piece of good news for Ciatarelli is that he made it an exciting race with almost a month to go. In his failed 2021 campaign, he got off to a late start and fell just short. We saw something similar across the Hudson River in the 2022 New York gubernatorial race, when Lee Zeldin’s late charge wasn’t enough to defeat Governor Kathy Hochul.
This time, Ciatarelli has a full month of competitive racing to sell his vision to the people of the Garden State — not to convince them he has a chance, as before, but to show them he can make the state a better place.
The event Friday evening in Wildwood, NJ, will include a tribute to Charlie Kirk, the conservative leader who was assassinated in Utah on September 10. (Photo by Michael Ho Wai Lee/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) (Getty)
One final note: Sherrill’s TV ads thus far have focused almost entirely on tying her opponent to Trump. A few weeks ago, that probably seemed like money well spent.
But today, Trump is on the cusp of bringing peace to the Middle East and securing the release of hostages held by Hamas — achievements for which even some of his fiercest critics are grudgingly giving him credit.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE FOX NEWS ADVICE
In this environment, Ciatarelli’s “I like Trump, but I’m not Trump” approach could yield electoral results. Voters who view Trump’s presidency as a catastrophe will never vote Republican, but the number of such voters appears to be declining.
I will be at the meeting on Friday, which will also include a memorial service for Charlie Kirk. We’ll see how much excitement the event can bring to Ciatarelli’s campaign.
In May 2020, Trump held a rally in Wildwood that drew unexpectedly large crowds — at a time when his return to the White House still seemed like a long shot. It brought life to his campaign.
That day in Jersey was a turning point for Trump. On Friday, Ciatarelli will look for similar mojo on the same beaches of Wildwood.
CLICK HERE TO DAVID MARCUS
