While much remains unknown in these early days of Operation Epic Fury, one thing has become clear: how little the conventional wisdom about foreign policy in Washington, DC, has to do with the realities taking shape on the battlefield. Traditionally, four things were believed to be virtually inevitable if the United States and/or Israel took significant military action against Iran:
- Iran’s supreme leader is said to be untouchable.
- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps would use its terrorist allies to spark a regional war.
- Israel would become isolated in the Middle East and vulnerable to attacks from Arab neighbors.
- The United States would be isolated on the world stage and limited in what it could do to support Israel, which would benefit Russia and China.
A group of men inspect the ruins of a police station hit during the US-Israeli military campaign in Tehran, Iran, on Tuesday, March 3, 2026. (Vahid Salemi/AP)
All four assumptions are completely wrong.
Clearly the supreme leader was not untouchable. He was eliminated in one of the mission’s opening attacks, along with much of Iran’s leadership. His arrogant foolishness in assembling that leadership was actually the opportunity that created Epic Fury in the first place.
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But that didn’t stop the survivors from organizing a follow-up meeting on Tuesday, March 3, which in turn was purposeful. The demoralized remnants of the regime are now trying to re-establish command and control, with little structure or internal communication.
Moreover, the predicted massive regional attack on Israel did not materialize. Because of Iran’s disastrous decision to launch missiles against its neighbors – even those who had acted as mediators, such as Qatar and Oman – the region has united not against Israel, but against Iran.
There are even reports that Arab countries may participate in the attacks on Iran. The Abraham Accords have endured, although they have been under pressure since the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
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Iran’s terrorist allies, rather than rising up to attack Israel, have been remarkably inactive given the desperate situation of their patron. Hamas in Gaza has been virtually silent. Hezbollah in Lebanon has fired some rockets, but nothing like the overwhelming barrage of precision-guided missiles once feared. The Houthi in Yemen prefer to stick with threats rather than attacks. None of them seem interested in a multi-front war against the combined might that the US and Israel have shown.
While it is true that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have issued strong statements condemning the US action, they have actually done very little to support their perceived ally Iran, which is reportedly registering complaints about the quality of the missile defense systems they have supplied.
Clearly the supreme leader was not untouchable. He was eliminated in one of the mission’s opening attacks, along with much of Iran’s leadership.
And America, far from being isolated, is being re-established as the preeminent military power on the planet, while Russia and China hardly seem like reliable partners. Even our originally fearful European allies have come to support the mission.
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Of course, this is a real war, and no one is saying it will be neat or easy. It is a difficult mission that has cost and will continue to cost American lives and treasure to successfully prosecute. But there is no denying that it is very different from what the so-called ‘experts’ have been predicting for the past 47 years.
So while success is far from guaranteed, this new reality poses both different opportunities and risks, and should prompt a reevaluation of other assumptions that have limited U.S. action against Iran for so long.
President Donald Trump has a history of doing things in the Middle East that were declared impossible. Experts knew that moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem would trigger a massive regional attack on Israel. Eliminating Qasam Soleimani would unleash a regional war. Further regional normalization between Israel and its regional neighbors could only be achieved if there was a two-state solution with the Palestinians.
People supporting US and Israeli attacks on Iran gather at the White House in Washington on Saturday, February 28, 2026. (Jose Luis Magana/AP Photo)
See what I mean?
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Another piece of conventional wisdom that Trump seems to want to refute is the so-called “Pottery Barn Rule” for regime change – “you break it, you buy it.” This dictate that the US must rebuild an enemy country once its government was deposed—even if that government had supported a brutal attack on our own soil—led to catastrophic missions in Afghanistan and Iraq because, after the success of those military campaigns, efforts to rebuild those countries dragged on for decades and ended in failure.
Iran’s terrorist allies, rather than rising up to attack Israel, have been remarkably inactive given the desperate situation of their patron.
America must not repeat this mistake. Presumably, Trump will want to end the kinetic phase of this mission once his objectives are achieved. Then we will see whether the Iranian people will take advantage of the best opportunity they have had since the revolution to win back their government.
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After all, Iran is a country, not dishes in a store, and President Trump’s mission is not nation building. It is intended to give the American people the opportunity to be free from the deadly threat of the Islamic Republic for the next half century, especially if that regime were to acquire a nuclear weapon.
It would be even better to go through that period with a prosperous and secure partner in what will become the new Iran. And that future will ultimately be up to the people of Iran to secure.
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