The Iranian regime just told us everything we need to know.
Within days, Tehran went from signaling that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open to threatening to close it. This reversal is a reminder that the regime cannot be trusted to enforce any agreement it signs because its strategy depends on constant threats and keeping the world off balance.
The problem is not what they say. It is the one who is really in charge.
The Iranian regime does not function as a normal state. Leaders often show calmness to relieve pressure or buy time. But the real authority rests with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. The IRGC controls the missiles, the proxy networks and the ability to disrupt global shipping. When it matters, they decide.
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And they benefit from instability.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the regime’s most effective instruments of coercion. A fifth of the world’s oil flows through it. Iran does not need to close the country to cause a crisis. It just needs to make the threat credible. Even talk of disruption can roil markets and drive up energy prices.
The US Central Command said on Wednesday: “After implementing the blockade on ships entering and leaving Iranian ports, US forces have halted economic seaborne trade to and from Iran.” (CENTCOM)
That’s exactly what we’re seeing now. Tehran signals restraint, then returns to escalation. It is not intended to cause confusion. It is intended to exert influence.
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This creates a serious problem for anyone who still hopes that a new deal with the Iranian regime will bring lasting stability.
Deals depend on consistency. The Iranian system is built for the opposite.
For years, U.S. and European officials have negotiated as if Iranian commitments on paper would translate into predictable behavior. But the regime’s most powerful actors are not interested in fulfilling these obligations. This regime was not designed to be contained, reformed or tamed. The IRGC’s influence depends on sanctions evasion, regional militias, and the constant threat of escalation.
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If Washington’s imperative is “no nuclear weapons for Tehran,” then it must recognize that this regime is built not just to pursue lethal weapons, but to use any tool as power in its dangerous agenda.
A demonstrator holds signs reading ‘Stop executions in Iran’ and ‘Liberate Iran’ during the demonstration. Demonstrators gathered outside Downing Street to protest executions in Iran and in support of freedom for Iran. (Vuk Valcic/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
The shift on Hormuz makes that reality clear. When the regime is forced to choose between the appearance of cooperation and maintaining influence, the regime chooses leverage.
This has direct consequences for American policy.
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Washington cannot afford to treat diplomacy as an end in itself. An agreement that is not backed by real enforcement, credible military deterrence, and a clear understanding of who has power in Tehran will not last. It will be tested, challenged and ultimately broken if the regime decides to get away with it.
A regime that turns a vital energy bottleneck into an instrument of pressure is not a responsible partner. It’s the opposite. The back-and-forth over Hormuz is a stark reminder that Tehran’s core strategy is through threat deployment, not cooperation.
As long as the system is thus wired, any agreement with this regime will be inherently unstable. Why let the regime decide what the next turnaround will be?
IRGC intelligence chief Majid Khademi was killed early Monday morning in an Israeli precision strike that also took out a Quds Force commander. (POOL via WANA/Reuters, AP images)
That should also tell us where American policy should go. Washington must stop pretending that this regime can be ‘managed’ with better communiqués and slightly stricter clauses. The problem is not the wording of the deal. The problem is the nature of the regime that signs it. And no matter how many of their high-ranking leaders are killed, it’s still the same regime.
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So negotiations should not be treated as a way to stabilize this leadership, but as a temporary tool while we increase pressure for its eventual replacement. Any new deal with the current rulers in Tehran will follow the same script of brief restraint when it suits them, followed by a new round of ‘diplomacy’ when they need influence. A serious strategy would focus on weakening the regime’s hold at home, attacking its security apparatus and economic lifelines, and openly supporting the Iranian people who continue to risk their lives to challenge it.
The battle for Hormuz is a reminder of how this regime will treat every agreement it signs, until the day it ultimately ceases to exist.
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