President Donald Trump discusses how his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin went and what the next step is in peace negotiations and more in an exclusive interview about ‘Hannity’.
The headlines say the Alaska top between President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin roughly Ukraine. Commentators in Brussels and Washington rehearse the well -known debates: Was Trump too soft on Moscow? Did he undermine Kyiv?
But that framing misses the bigger picture.
The Trump government has already determined the conditions of the 21st-century competition: the United States is confronted with the greatest long-term threat, not from Russia, but of China. From major sanctions on the access from Beijing to advanced AI chips to trading American security guarantees for coordination in the Middle East and Indo-Pacific, Trump has consistently structured foreign policy around the rise of China. Against that background, his outreach in Russia is not a distraction. It is a deliberate attempt to bring coherence to a strategy for the first American strategy-one that is opposed to the old globalistic consensus that is now holding on to the EU-Ukraine agenda.
China Eyes Trump-Putin Meeting, Measuring West’s Resolve on Ukraine
For Europe, the war in Ukraine is cast as the ‘front line of democracy’. Brussels, supported by Kiev, insists on an indefinite confrontation with Russia: maximum sanctions, deeper NATO obligations and permanent integration of Ukraine in Western order. It is an elevated vision, but one that comes at the expense of America. NATO extension increases the American defense guarantees. The demographic and economic collapse of Ukraine makes full territorial restoration unlikely, so that Washington has open liability. And economically, it is Europe – not the US – that bore the victims of disturbed energy and trade after 2022. America has meanwhile benefited from LNG export and remains relatively isolated. What Brussels is looking for is clear: to close the US deeper in continental matters as the ultimate guarantee, even if that Washington distracts from the theater that will define the century.
Trump’s Russia Gambit moves in the opposite direction. It is not about pampering, but about realism, tailored to his China-first doctrine. Russia is today the weak link in Beijing’s strategy. The dependence on Moscow on Chinese capital, markets and diplomatic coverage has grown dramatically. Beijing has operated this liver to extract steep discounts on Russian oil, to sharpen the Yuan trade and to secure the coordination of Moscow with its geopolitical positions. Uncontrolled that “Eurasian Entente” locks America to confront with two nuclear colleagues at the same time.
Trump’s goal is to pry the ashes apart. His tools are transactional but clear. On the economic side, he suggested openings in energy, arctic shipping and critical minerals that would reduce dependence on Russia on Beijing and at the same time create potential opportunities for supply chain for American industry. On the military side, he carefully sustained Ukraine – Patriots, Bradleys, Hawks – enough to hold the line, but no blank check that breaks down the American stocks or risks direct escalation. And with diplomacy, he has coupled conditional carrots with hard sticks: all relief bound to verifiable Russian step-striking-fire, de-escalation and distance from Beijing-with Snapback sanctions always in reserve.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) shakes the hands of Chinese President Xi Jinping (L) during their meeting in the Grand Kremlin Palace, on 8 May 2025 in Moscow, Russia. (Contributor / Getty image / getty images)
This strategy is in line with everything else that the Trump government has done. Washington has already cut China off the most advanced AI-Halfsteiders, blocked the access from Beijing to cloud-computer sources that put the laboratories of electricity and tried to restructure the supply chains of rare earth by allies from Australia to Africa. In the Middle East, Trump has exchanged the US security guarantees for coordination of oil and technology, explicitly framed as part of the China competition. In Asia he has expanded the basic rights in the Philippines and Guam, with reference to Chinese aggression in the South Chinese Sea. In this context, his outreach in Russia is not a departure, but a continuation of the same design.
For Putin, the Alaska Summit comes at a moment of both strength and vulnerability. Moscow has folded modest profits in Ukraine and saw the oil income rise 17% in the early 2025. But it is confronted with increasing financial pressure. The demand for priority is re-introduced in the Swift system, starting with Rosselkhozbank. In the meantime, Trump has doubled the rates for Indian goods to 50%, explicitly referring to Russian oil purchases of India and endangered fines as high as 100% on every country purchased at a discount, Russian crude oil – a warning aimed at China. Moscow knows that this is a serious lever: Washington can not only press Russian income by blocking exports, but also by force deeper discounts through third parties.
That is where the chance lies. If Trump can channel Russia to transactional deals – limited energy, arctic and mineral cooperation – while the Moscow even partially pays off Beijing, America wins strategic space. By reducing ourselves in Europe, he freed resources for the Indo-Pacific, where the outcome of the century will be decided.
And that is the real choice for America. The first option is to follow the EU-Ukraine script-permanent sanctions, endless NATO expansion and an open confrontation that serves the agenda of Europe and at the same time boosting the US’s attention. The second is the realistic course of Trump-not trust, not an appeasement, but liver with cold eyes: the use of Russia’s weakness to break his bond with China, and to ensure that America is confronted with only one big power challenge, not two.
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Anchorage was therefore not about a concession. It was about coherence. Trump has already rearranged American foreign policy around the China Challenge. His Russia game is part of the same framework. The Alaska meeting is best not understood as a betrayal of Ukraine or a gift for Putin, but as a strategic attempt to reform the board so that the US can fight the game – and win – the competition that really matters.
Tanvi Ratna is a policy analyst and engineer with a decade experience in Statecraft at the intersection of geopolitics, economy and technology. She has worked on Capitol Hill, at EY, at Coindesk and others, shaping the policy in sectors from production to AI. Follow her records Statecraft X And Replace.
