On Saturday, Gazans in Deir al-Balah will go to the polls for the first time in twenty years to elect new local leaders. Experts warn that the move could give Hamas room to maintain influence as the country refuses to meet the disarmament conditions of the ceasefire.
Schanzer said the Bush administration’s 2006 decision to call for elections “led to Hamas winning, and it led to a stalemate that led to a civil war.”
“You have to be very careful when it comes to holding elections in an area like Gaza in particular, where Hamas has so much control and where terrorist organizations are still considered legitimate players,” Schanzer added.
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Journalists and media workers from Gaza continue to be posthumously identified as members of terrorist groups, highlighting the difficulty of distinguishing terror affiliates from civilians.
Election campaign banners with candidates for the upcoming municipal elections hang from a building in Deir al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip on April 21, 2026. (Eyad Baba/AFP via Getty Images)
Four parties are participating in the elections in Deir al-Balah. To qualify, candidates were asked to accept the Palestine Liberation Organization and the terms of agreements it has previously made, including the recognition of the state of Israel and the adoption of a two-state solution, according to reporting by the Center for Peace Communications.
However, many are concerned that one party, Deir al-Balah Unites Us, has ties to Hamas. Two of his candidates are pictured with Hamas officials or police officers.
Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, posted on X that “holding elections in Gaza at this time is extremely reckless and irresponsible,” noting that “Gazans are arrested, imprisoned, tortured, shot and killed every day because of social media posts and anything they say that is perceived as critical of Hamas.”
“These elections must be stopped and prevented from taking place because they interfere with the transition process that the Council of Peace, [National Council for the Administration of Gaza]and the international community have made plans for Gaza, with disarmament of Hamas and relinquishment of power being the first necessary step.”
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The disarmament of Hamas, a key demand in President Donald Trump’s second phase of the ceasefire, has yet to be completed. Reports indicate that Hamas has increased its hold in Gaza since March, taxing locals, building an education system and deploying police throughout the territory it controls.
Hamas terrorists stand guard in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on February 22, 2025, during the transfer of hostages as part of a ceasefire and hostage-prisoner exchange deal with Israel. (Hatem Khaled/Reuters)
Schanzer said Hamas is unlikely to hand over its weapons. If that were to happen, he said they would “try to differentiate between weapons,” possibly offering to give up heavy weapons like RPGs while retaining a large arsenal of automatic weapons.
Hamas appears to have made an offer for partial disarmament. The New York Times reported on April 19 that two Hamas officials said they would hand over thousands of weapons from their police force and other security institutions. The officials “did not give a clear answer” when asked whether weapons from Hamas’ so-called military wing would be included.
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President Donald Trump holds up a signed agreement during a summit of world leaders aimed at ending the Gaza war in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, on October 13. (Suzanne Plunkett/Getty Images)
Schanzer pushed back on the claim that Hamas’s political and military wings operate separately.
“That’s fiction. The idea that they are somehow separated or that there is a firewall between them is ridiculous.” He said this is “a distinction made by the West to maintain political relations with Hamas, or to justify elections. It is a mistake to believe in that fiction.”
Schanzer said weakening Iran could be the key to minimizing Hamas’ influence.
“I cannot emphasize enough how important that event can be because of the psychological impact of their main patron being defeated on the battlefield,” he said. “It would be a blow to Hamas.”
An election campaign will begin on April 12, 2026 in the city of Deir al-Balah, Gaza, as part of local elections scheduled for April 25. (Mohammed Eslayeh/Anadolu via Getty Images)
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While Israel controls about 53% of the Gaza Strip and Hamas the remaining 47%, Schanzer said, “We could continue to see the erosion of Hamas control” amid the “slow and steady process of Israel winning on the ground.”
He said patience is necessary, however, adding that “the enemies of the United States, Israel and the West have a very different timeline. They want to wait for everyone because they know we are eager to move on.”
