As Israel and Lebanon return to US-mediated talks in Washington on Thursday, the central question is the one that has derailed every previous attempt at a lasting deal: What happens to Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed terrorist organization?
The meeting comes as a fragile US-brokered ceasefire reached in mid-April remains in place for now and what officials describe as a narrow window for diplomacy after weeks of cross-border fighting.
ISRAEL-HEZBOLLAH-WEST STANDING IN DANGER AFTER 6 DEADLY MISSILE TALKS
From left to right, State Department adviser Michael Needham, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa, Lebanese Ambassador to the U.S. Nada Hamadeh Moawad and Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter pose for a photo before a meeting at the State Department in Washington, April 14, 2026. (Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo)
But the ceasefire did not resolve the underlying conflict, only paused it.
The latest escalation began on March 2, when Hezbollah launched attacks on Israel’s northern border, opening a new front in the days of the regional war following the US-Israeli attack on Iran on February 28, according to previous reporting.
Israel responded with sustained air and ground operations throughout southern Lebanon, aimed at pushing Hezbollah forces away from the border, while Hezbollah continued to fire rockets and drones into northern Israel.
The fighting displaced more than a million people in Lebanon and forced Israeli civilians into bomb shelters, underscoring the scale of the escalation.
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The ceasefire did not resolve the underlying conflict, it merely paused it. (Ammar Awad/Reuters)
With the guns temporarily quieted, the core circumstances that led to the war remain unchanged – leaving negotiators to grapple with the same unresolved question at the heart of the conflict.
A senior US official familiar with the negotiations described the core dilemma: Hezbollah will not agree to disarmament without a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, while Israel will not withdraw without disarming Hezbollah.
International mechanisms – including the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and a multilateral coordination group – have been working to bridge that gap since late 2024, without success.
The same official also indicated that the Lebanese President, Joseph Aoun, is not necessarily the decisive factor in these discussions, but that Nabih Berri, Speaker of the National House, is the one with the real authority, and not Aoun.
At the same time, Hezbollah has remained opposed to any contact with Israel and continues to exert significant influence over Lebanon’s political and security decisions, complicating U.S. efforts to move the talks forward.
Within Lebanon, however, frustration with Hezbollah appears to be increasing.
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An explosion erupts from a building after an Israeli attack in central Beirut, Lebanon, March 18, 2026. (Hussein Malla/AP Photo)
“There is a growing sense across Lebanon that any US-brokered negotiation path could be a rare opportunity to restore balance to the state,” said Rami Naeem, a Lebanese journalist and analyst at Jusoor News.
“Hezbollah’s continued military and political dominance is widely seen as a central driver of its collapse, and even a gradual or indirect openness with Israel could help rebuild state institutions and their roles.”
Mariam Kasrawani, a Lebanese analyst at Jusoor News, said the criticism is becoming increasingly explicit.
“It is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the depth of the crisis,” she said. “Some are now saying it outright: Hezbollah has brought Lebanon as a whole – and the Shiites in particular – to a very bad place.”
“I’m not optimistic at all,” says Barak Seener of the Henry Jackson Society think tank.
“Lebanon is far too weak and divided to force Hezbollah to disarm. And Hezbollah… is so enmeshed in Lebanon’s political system. Any attempt to disarm Hezbollah risks civil war.”
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As Israel and Lebanon return to US-mediated talks in Washington on Thursday, the central question is the one that has derailed every previous attempt at a lasting deal: What happens to Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed terrorist organization? (Fadel Itani/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Instead, Seener said, the talks are focused on narrow, tactical goals.
“The talks are aimed at extending the ceasefire, the withdrawal of Hezbollah from border areas and an expanded presence of the Lebanese army… the talks are not aimed at disarmament at all.”
That gap underlines what he described as the real nature of the process.
“I think these conversations are doomed to failure,” Seener said. “I think Israel is currently engaged in conflict management.”
Adding to the uncertainty are reports from the Saudi daily Asharq Al-Awsat that the US may pressure Lebanon to repeal Israel’s 1955 boycott law, which bans contact with Israelis.
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The meeting comes as a fragile US-brokered ceasefire reached in mid-April remains in place for now and what officials describe as a narrow window for diplomacy after weeks of cross-border fighting. (Adri Salido/Getty Images)
The report describes such a move as a step toward normalization, but provides no details and has not been confirmed by U.S. or Lebanese officials.
