The killing of Iranian nuclear scientists in US-Israeli military strikes has raised fears that, if the regime destabilizes, weakened control over uranium supplies and the spread of nuclear expertise could increase proliferation risk.
While Iran can replace its lost personnel, experts say the lost expertise will be harder to rebuild and that secret locations in the country could also leave dangerous materials and knowledge vulnerable.
“Currently, the risk of nuclear terrorism or nuclear material entering the black market remains low,” said Kelsey Davenport, director of nonproliferation policy at the Gun Control Association.
“Non-state actors would have difficulty gaining access to enriched uranium, and it is unlikely that they would have the infrastructure to enrich it to weapons levels and convert it into the metallic form needed for a warhead core,” she said.
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Mourners gather around the flag-draped coffins of Iranian Armed Forces generals, nuclear scientists and their relatives on the trucks killed in Israeli strikes during their funeral ceremony in Tehran, Iran, Saturday, June 28, 2025. (Vahid Salemi/AP)
“However, if the current Iranian government implodes or if the conflict causes significant internal instability, there is an increased risk of nuclear material being stolen or diverted to undeclared locations.”
“There is also a risk that Iranian nuclear scientists may be willing to sell their expertise to states or non-state actors seeking nuclear weapons,” Davenport said in a new report.
Several senior figures in Iran’s nuclear and defense infrastructure have been killed in the past two years, coinciding with the campaign of US and Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities between 2025 and 2026.
Among them is Hossein Jabal Amelian, head of the Organization for Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND), who was killed in 2026 during Operation Rising Lion and Operation Epic Fury.
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President Pezeshkian said Iran will rebuild and strengthen the nuclear facilities targeted by the US by 2025. (Iranian Presidency/Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images)
SPND is seen as the successor to Iran’s pre-2004 nuclear weapons program and plays a key role in new armaments research.
Others killed in 2025 include Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, Akbar Motallebizadeh and Said Borji, all linked to armaments work.
“There will be replacements of managers and scientists, but the impact on the experience and expertise of the officials killed will be difficult to replace,” the spokesperson said. former CIA analyst said.
“Many key scientists involved in suspected weaponization work were killed in 2025 and 2026.”
“Their successors may also fear that they will be targeted in the future, whether through military attacks or assassination attempts. That could affect their motivation and willingness to participate in any nuclear weapons program.”
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Coffin during the funeral of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohammad Reza Sedighi Sabre. (Alborz Irani/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
Lamson also said many of the targets were embedded in sensitive areas of Iran’s nuclear work, including its fuel cycle and weaponry.
“These scientists had expertise in areas of the fuel cycle of major importance to nuclear weapons, including the production of highly enriched uranium (HEU), which was Iran’s main route for fissile material,” he said.
“The scientists also had expertise in weaponization – that is, in key aspects of the design and production of nuclear explosives,” Lamson added.
That said, U.S. and Israeli targeted strikes have also hit a network of sites related to their work, creating additional obstacles to the Iranian program in the short term, he said.
“We have identified at least 11 weapons-related sites that have been affected since 2024,” Lamson said.
“This includes the SPND headquarters, a newly identified site called Min-Zadayi in northeastern Tehran, the SPND explosives testing sites Taleghan and Sanjarian, the Defense Ministry’s Shahid Meisami complex in western Tehran and several research universities.”
These facilities were all involved in neutronics, explosives, metallurgy and nuclear physics – all linked to the development of nuclear weapons, he said.
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Satellite images show reinforcement efforts at Pickaxe Mountain site as Trump says Tehran pursues nuclear weapon (Vantor/Reuters)
Despite the scale of the latest attacks, Iran retains enriched nuclear material, with President Donald Trump saying on April 17 that the US would work with Iran to recover “nuclear dust” – enriched uranium – from sites, adding that both countries would use heavy machinery to remove it.
The International Atomic Energy Agency also estimates that Iran still holds more than 200 kilos of uranium, enriched to 60% in Esfahan – enough for about five weapons if further enriched.
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi also said it is “under the rubble” of previous attacks and that Tehran has no plans to recover it.
“It is always possible that Iran has additional locations that were not known to Israel and the US,” Lamson said.
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“We will have to wait and see to what extent these operations translate into a lasting strategic impact on Iran’s ability to produce nuclear weapons.”
“It is easier to identify the damage and death caused by the Israeli and American strikes, and more difficult to assess their actual impact on Iran’s capabilities and intentions to produce a nuclear weapon,” Lamson clarified.
