As Venezuela enters the post-Nicolas Maduro era, former officials and regional experts warn that the country may not be facing a democratic transition but a period of deeper instability and internal conflict between potential successors, which some warn could be even worse than Maduro.
Marshall Billingslea, former assistant secretary for terrorist financing and financial crimes at the U.S. Treasury Department, said Maduro’s removal exposed a broken system that was never held together by a single strongman, but by competing criminal power centers that now move independently.
“The cartel has always been a loose association, with each of the mafia bosses having its own center of gravity,” Billingslea said. “Maduro was the front man, but he did not exercise total control. Now we see that each of those centers runs on its own.”
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‘Wanted’ posters from the US State Department show Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López (left) and senior regime figure Diosdado Cabello, both accused by US authorities of corruption and ties to drug trafficking networks. (US Department of State)
Billingslea said the capture of Cilia Flores, Maduro’s wife, was as consequential as the removal of Maduro himself.
“The arrest of Cilia Flores is a particularly big problem because she was the mastermind behind the operation and the one who eliminated potential rivals,” he said. “Her removal is equally important.”
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Billingslea outlined what he described as five competing centers of power, four within the regime and one outside. “The removal of Maduro, and especially the removal of Cilia Flores, leaves a huge power vacuum in the cartel,” he said. “We haven’t reached a new equilibrium here yet.”
In the meantime, he foresees a high risk of internal power struggles, violence and further repression as rival factions maneuver to secure control in a post-Maduro Venezuela. But he notes that the Trump administration is anticipating this and is implementing a clear-eyed strategy to first secure U.S. core interests, followed by the gradual restoration of democracy, all without the need for American “boots on the ground.”
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Delcy Rodríguez takes over, but power remains controversial
Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro’s longtime vice president, was quickly installed as interim leader. But her rise has done little to reassure Venezuelans and international observers that meaningful change is coming.
Rodríguez is deeply entrenched in the Maduro system and has long played a central role in overseeing Venezuela’s internal intelligence and security apparatus. According to regional reporting, her focus since taking office has been on consolidating control within those institutions, rather than on signaling political reforms.
Former U.S. and regional officials say the rise of Delcy Rodríguez has revived long-standing questions about who really influences her decisions as she moves to consolidate power.
Venezuela’s Vice President Delcy Rodriguez speaks to the media in Caracas, Venezuela, on March 10, 2025. (Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/Reuters)
These officials point to Rodríguez’s close ties to Cuban intelligence, which has helped build and operate Venezuela’s internal security and surveillance apparatus over the past two decades. Cuban operatives played a central role in shaping the way the regime monitored dissent and protected its senior leadership, by embedding themselves in Venezuela’s intelligence services.
At the same time, former officials say Rodríguez appears to be testing cooperation with Washington, creating uncertainty about how much influence the United States actually has. Some see her limited engagement with U.S. demands as tactical, aimed at buying time as she works to secure loyalty within the regime and neutralize rival factions.
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A U.S. State Department “wanted” poster for Diosdado Cabello Rondon, a key Venezuelan regime figure accused by U.S. authorities of ties to narcotics trafficking and narcoterrorism (US Department of State)
Cabello mobilizes loyalists
Diosdado Cabello, one of the country’s most feared figures, has emerged as a central player in the post-Maduro battle for control.
Cabello, who wields influence over the ruling party and internal security, has assembled armed colectivos and loyalist groups. These groups have been active on the streets, arresting opponents and strengthening the regime’s authority through intimidation.
Cabello, who has been sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department for corruption and alleged ties to drug trafficking networks, is widely seen as a figure capable of consolidating power through force rather than institutions.
Jorge Rodríguez has the control levers in his hands
Jorge Rodríguez, President of the National Assembly and brother of Delcy Rodríguez, remains one of the regime’s main political actors.
Rodríguez has served as a key strategist for Maduro, overseeing communications, elections and internal coordination. Recent reports indicate that he continues to work closely with his sister to maintain control of intelligence and security structures, strengthening the regime’s grip despite Maduro’s removal.
Experts say Rodríguez could play a central role in shaping any managed transition that preserves the system Maduro built.
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US State Department posters show Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López accused by US authorities of conspiring to distribute cocaine aboard a US-registered aircraft
Padrino López
Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López, long considered the backbone of Maduro’s survival, also remains a critical figure.
Although Padrino López has not publicly positioned himself as successor, analysts note that the armed forces are no longer united behind a single leader. Senior generals are divided among competing factions, raising the risk of internal clashes or a shift to overt military rule if civilian authority continues to weaken.
In addition to the power struggle between regime elites, Venezuela faces a broader danger.
Large parts of the country are already influenced by criminal syndicates and armed groups. As centralized authority weakens, these actors can exploit the vacuum and expand control over territory and smuggling routes.
Experts warned that an uncontrolled collapse could unleash forces more violent and less predictable than Maduro’s centralized repression, and events now unfolding suggest the risk is increasing.
Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado waves a national flag during an opposition protest on the eve of the presidential inauguration in Caracas on January 9, 2025. (Juan Barreto/AFP via Getty Images)
Outside the regime, opposition leader María Corina Machado remains the most popular political figure among Venezuelan voters. But popularity alone may not be enough to translate into power.
Machado has no control over security forces, intelligence services or armed groups. As repression increases and rival factions maneuver, its ability to translate public support into political authority remains uncertain.
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Police patrol in La Guaira, Venezuela, Saturday, January 3, 2026, after US President Donald Trump announced that President Nicolás Maduro had been captured and flown out of the country. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix)
The fall of Maduro has not dismantled Venezuela’s power structure, according to analysts. It broke it.
With armed loyalists on the streets, rival factions battling behind the scenes and an interim leader struggling to assert authority, Venezuela now faces a perilous period in which the aftermath of Maduro’s rule could prove more chaotic — and possibly brutal — than before, experts say. For Venezuelans, the question is no longer whether Maduro is gone, but whether something that replaces him will be better.
