I have just returned from China, where I was the Republican member of the first house delegation to visit since 2019.
Our dual group met Prime Minister Li Qiang and high officials to tackle dialogue about military to military communication, trade, nuclear proliferation and fentanyl.
From the moment I landed, the atmosphere wore unmistakable echoes of the Cold War. Safety, the suspicion, the ideological stiffness – it all felt like a return to the Soviet Union of the 1980s.
Hegseeth delivers strict warning to China in the first call after XI’s military parade
But unlike the stagnant Soviet Union of the 1980s, China is still rising. History shows that when a growing force clashes with an established, the risk of conflicts grows. My former Harvard professor, Graham Allison, calls this the “Thucydides Trap” – referring to the military conflict described by the Greek historian between the established Sparta and the rising Athens. Sparta won, but against devastating costs.
Can America stay out of the war with China while still defending American interests and values? After my visit I am convinced that we can do it, but only if we act with clarity, strength and unity.
Five insights emerged from candid scholarships in Beijing and with regional partners.
First, an increased dialogue is not indulgence; It is an insurance against miscalculation. China visited the last house delegation six years ago. That gap should never happen again. Members of the congress must continue to visit Taiwan, but also regularly return to Beijing. Military hotlines at a high level should be restored, so an incident in the Strait of Taiwan or South China Sea is not out of hand.
Secondly, China is strong, but Bros. Hyper-competitive markets and state speed quickly convert ideas into products. China runs six of the world’s largest ports and spends almost 3% of GDP on basic research, while universities produce two million voice -bachelor -degrees per year. Since 2020, the nuclear arsenal of China has tripled in size.
But the same control of one party that can move resources also increases errors-of zero-known whiplash to a transmitted real estate sector and total debt estimated above 300% of GDP. A population that peaked in 2023 is already shrinking. “Wolf-Warrior” is diplomacy such as bullying and the decision of China to adapt to Russia, Iran and N. Korea undermine the influence with neighbors and Europe. The most important thing is that the needs of the Chinese Communist Party to implement Orwellian supervision of its citizens and brutally show the uncertainty of its leadership by dissidents and religious minorities.
Thirdly, we must strengthen regional partnerships. The true advantage of America is not only aircraft carriers – they are allies who choose to be with us. The combined GDP of the United States, Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines and India exceed $ 40 trillion and represents more than two billion people. None of these countries wants to live under the thumb of Beijing. Building a network of alliances is our strongest deterrent in Asia.
Fourth, striving for areas of mutual American-Chinese interest, but with a relentive clarity. Nearly 100,000 Americans die every year from overdoses fentanyl and many chemical precursors are from China. China has its own historical and current problems with drugs. If Beijing is serious about a more stable relationship, this is a Litmus test: acting decisively against the export of the precursor. Nuclear proliferation is another area where China has collaborated in the past and should again. Southeast -Asian scam Hubs operate both Chinese and American families. Joint progress in these areas can build trust that leads to understanding.
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Fifth, the American power renews at home. We lead China today, but whether we can compete with China in the coming years in areas such as AI, nuclear energy and drone warfare, largely depends on America who solve regulatory and administrative problems at home. This means that the bureaucracy runs through, endless lawsuits are displayed that delays a critical infrastructure for decades and our military purchasing cycle is determined. The most important thing is that the growing national debt crisis of America must be seen by the lens of national security.
The best way to avoid war with China is to prepare so thoroughly – with our allies, our economy and our determination – that aggression becomes undesirable and therefore unnecessary.
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This is not about surrounding or oppression. It is about retaining freedom, the deterioration of coercion and retaining peace. During the Cold War, the combination of strength, alliances and trust in our values wore the day. With China we are not confronted with a cold war, but a hard peace, where we have to collaborate with global partners to channel rising ambitions in peaceful results.
May future congress delegations be large and frequent.
