Within hours of US munitions hitting Iranian soil, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted a statement that the Western press largely regarded as a diplomatic footnote, but it was a signal that what happens in the skies above Tehran has a direct impact on the ground in Ukraine.
President Zelenskyy explicitly supported the attacks, calling Iran “Putin’s stooge,” noting that his country has absorbed more than 57,000 Iranian-supplied drone strikes, and taking aim at Moscow: “Every time there is American determination, the global criminals weaken. This understanding must also reach the Russians.’
It is no coincidence that Zelensky views the war in Iran through the lens of the Ukrainian war. Whatever Washington’s objectives, the president, who has lived through the conflict in Ukraine since the 2022 invasion, understands that Iran has been an active accomplice in Russia’s war against Ukraine, and that the United States has now moved against that accomplice.
By attacking the Iranian regime that supplied Russia with (and has the ability to produce) the Shahed drones that have been terrorizing Ukraine’s civilian population for four years, Washington has eliminated a key Russian ally, which will negatively impact Russia’s ability to wage war in Europe.
When Iranian-supplied drones began falling on Kiev in October 2022, reducing apartment buildings to rubble and plunging cities into darkness, the world quickly learned a new word: Shahed. The Shahed-136 is not an advanced weapon. It’s not happening quickly (although Russian improvements have greatly increased its capabilities). It’s not as accurate as a cruise missile. What it is, and what it was always intended to be in Russian hands, is a weapon of civilian terror.
Russia’s Shahed focuses on power stations and apartment buildings. The devastation they harvest contributes to power outages that leave families without light and heat in winter. It is the triangular silhouette that Ukrainians have learned to fear in the night sky, the low, distinctive whir of the propeller that sends people running for shelter. I have seen Shaheds flying through Ukrainian airspace toward civilian targets. I have stood in the darkness with intercept teams doing everything they could to take down Shaheds before they found their targets. The images of these drones flying into buildings in Kiev represent the human toll of Iran’s pernicious contribution to the war in Ukraine.
In early 2023, Iran signed a $1.75 billion contract for additional drones and full production blueprints. Russia subsequently built its own production facility in Tatarstan. Ukrainian intelligence estimates that Russia is now producing up to 1,000 modified Geran drones per day using Iranian-sourced technology. In essence, Tehran handed Moscow the blueprint for a terror campaign against civilians that Russia has since industrialized on its own soil.
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In addition to drones, Iran supplied nearly $3 billion in ballistic and surface-to-air missiles before and during the invasion, including hundreds of Fath-360 ballistic missiles, numerous anti-aircraft systems and hundreds of thousands of artillery shells, with a total weapons value of more than $4 billion.
Iranian ammunition replenished Russia’s stockpile, dashing Western hopes that Russia would soon run out of grenades, drones and missiles. In return, Russia offered Iran S-400 air defense systems, Su-35 fighter jets, the construction of nuclear reactors and geopolitical cover at the UN Security Council. A twenty-year strategic partnership was formalized in early 2024. This was an axis that included military, nuclear, financial and diplomatic dimensions, and as a result of US actions in Iran, this axis has crumbled spectacularly. In a recent statement, Russian Foreign Minister Dimitry Peskov stated that Russia would not honor its defense agreement with Iran because he signed the agreement with Ayatollah Khameini, and Khamenei has been assassinated.
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However, Russia’s main strategic partner, China, continues to supply large quantities of microelectronics and components for the Russian military-industrial complex on a scale that Iran could not match. But Beijing has carefully avoided direct lethal hardware transfers to maintain a degree of deniability. Iran, on the other hand, has filled the gap that China deliberately left open: frontline weapons and production blueprints, which are being deployed without hesitation.
Russia has brought Shahed production entirely domestically, even improving on the original design with the more advanced and expensive Geran variants. The Iranian government’s fifty-year legacy of terror will live on not only in the states of the Middle East, but also in Europe as long as the war in Ukraine continues.
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With the US campaign promising to last at least several weeks, Iran’s ability to deliver additional ballistic missiles is in jeopardy. The ability to upgrade drone designs at home and supply replacement components has been reduced. Moreover, any Russian assets that might be used to protect battered Iran, air defense systems, aircraft parts and logistics, are assets not available in Zaporizhia or Kherson. Moscow now finds itself burdened with a weakened, desperate partner at precisely the time when it can least afford the distraction.
This represents a different kind of pressure on Russia than sanctions or battlefield aid—one that works through the partnership networks and supply chains that have supported Russia’s war effort. Zelensky’s prescient statement that every act of aggression ultimately produces a just response was aimed at Moscow and Tehran. Although Ukraine was not Washington’s main consideration when President Trump decided to attack Iran, the calculus of the war in Ukraine will become more complicated for Russia, and that is a good thing for Ukrainians fighting for their right to survive.
