Analysts warn that fears of a global famine are rising as food prices rise and vulnerable supply chains come under pressure during the Strait of Hormuz crisis, raising the risk of a Suez-scale protracted disruption that will last eight years.
As the conflict entered Day 62, the US maintained its naval blockade on traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports, while Iran continued to effectively close the Strait.
“And it has to be a deal where there is confidence that Iran is satisfied enough with the deal that they don’t suddenly close the strait again.
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A cargo ship sails towards the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf on April 22, 2026. (AP photo)
“Even in that case, it will take months for supply chains to return to normal.”
President Donald Trump announced on April 21 that he would delay renewed attacks on Iran until the country submits a proposal for long-term peace, effectively extending the 14-day ceasefire indefinitely.
Trump said Washington’s blockade of Iranian ports has been effective and urged Tehran to “just give up” as tensions over the waterway escalate.
“At worst, we could be looking at the eight-year closure of the Suez Canal from 1967 to 1975,” Jensen said.
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The crude oil tanker SKS Doyles sails along the Suez Canal towards Ismailia in Suez, Egypt, on December 21, 2023, amid a sharp drop in tanker traffic through the Red Sea due to attacks disrupting global trade routes. (Stringer/Bloomberg)
“Despite its importance to the global economy, it has proven impossible to reopen the canal during those eight years,” he said.
The Suez Canal, which was closed from 1967 to 1975 following the Arab-Israeli conflict, has suffered recurring disruptions, including attacks on the Red Sea since 2023, raising insurance costs, creating a “shadow blockage” and reducing traffic.
For Hormuz, Jensen says fertilizer, which is critical to agricultural production, is the most critical factor, and any continued disruption could quickly ripple through global food systems.
“Fertilizer is the most important element. Thirty percent of the world’s marine fertilizer comes from the Persian Gulf,” Jensen said. “Fertilizer prices are rapidly rising,” he warned.
IRAN FIRES LIVE MISSILES INTO STRAIT OF HORMUZ AS TRUMP HEALTH ARRIVAL FOR NUCLEAR TALKS
A ship is seen transiting the Strait of Hormuz during a two-week temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran on April 8, 2026. (Shadowy Alassar/Anadolu/Getty Images)
“In rich countries this means more expensive food during the harvest season, and in poor countries it means that farmers cannot afford fertilizer at the moment,” Jensen added.
“This will mean lower harvests later in the season, leading to rapid increases in food prices in very poor countries. And such a situation increases the risk of famine and conflict.”
Diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran remained fragile on Thursday, with limited signs of progress.
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According to reports, a giant banner hangs from a building in Tehran’s central Enqelab Square that reads: “The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed; the entire Persian Gulf is our hunting ground.”
“Cargo ships do not sail for the simple reason that commercial companies do not want their seafarers to potentially be killed,” Jensen added.
