President Donald Trump made the shocking announcement this month that the US is trying to take Bagram Airfield back from the Taliban in Afghanistan after he had left it more than four years ago.
There is only one problem with the newest ambition of Trump – China will ensure that Washington does not reach this goal, Bill Roggio, expert analyst and senior editor of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’s “Long War Journal”.
“But let’s say that the Trump government could convince the Taliban to consider allowing the US to return to Bagram,” he continued. “The Chinese would come down hard.”
Trump: We try to get Bagram Airbase ‘Back’ from Taliban in Afghanistan
UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters fly during a military parade on the occasion of the third birthday of the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, led by the US, in Bagram Air Base in the province of Parwan in Afghanistan, Wednesday, August 14, 2024. (AP Photo/Siddiqullah Alizai)
Roggio explained that China and Russia have an established interest in the US staying from the region.
The withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan opened the mineral-rich nation to China and has enabled Beijing to extend its Belt and Road Initiative to a country, although run by a terrorist organization-that it was previously unable to tap.
China-the first country that in 2023 an ambassador in the Taliban-Run Natie sent his Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, to Kabul in August to have discussions with the acting Minister of Foreign Affairs Amir Khan Muttaqi in Afghanistan.
According to the Taliban, China not only showed an interest in the mine opportunities of Afghanistan, where minerals such as lithium, copper, iron, gold and uranium are abundant, but Beijing also said it was open to expand the trade with Kabul.
A visit to the Chinese State Council and Foreign Minister Wang Yi conducts discussions with Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, acting Deputy Prime Minister of the caretaker of the Afghan Taliban, in Kabul, Afghanistan, March 24, 2022. (Saifurahman Safi/Xinhua via Getty images)
Although access to these minerals China could benefit considerably, the impact that trade and mining agreements with Beijing could have on the terrible economy of Afghanistan for Kabul crucial.
“The Chinese simply have an important influence on the Taliban, especially when it comes to something like the American return,” said Roggio. “They would put pressure on the Taliban by possibly canceling those mining rights by limiting trade, by putting an end to political and diplomatic recognition. These are all things that are important for the Taliban if they try to develop as a government and try to be legitimate recognized.”
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“The Taliban doesn’t care if the US recognizes them as much as the Taliban would give them if the Chinese would recognize them if the Russians recognized them,” he added.
Trump claimed that the deal he formed with the Taliban in 2020 in Doha, Qatar – who did not include the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan in May 2021 – did not include the Bagram Air Base.
“We would save it,” Trump told reporters from the UK last week.
But the original deal contained no provision with which the US could keep the forces at the basis, about 30 miles north of Kabul.
An infographic entitled “Trump’s Bagram Plan revives Great Power Rivalry about Afghanistan” founded in Ankara, Turkiye on September 23, 2025. (Murat Usubali/Anadolu via Getty images)
Regardless of whether there is a Chinese nuclear facility near the former American base in Afghanistan, Roggio warned that the economic ties that Beijing and Kabul are established is “dangerous”.
“The growing Taliban Chinese relationship is something we have to worry about. The Chinese can give the Taliban access to technology-military technology,” he said. “They could give them the resources they need.”
Roggio pointed out that a mining deal could put “billions” in the bags of the Taliban.
“Why is this important? Because al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups use Afghanistan as the basis of operations,” said Roggio, and noted that Al-Qaida is said to lead training camps in 13 of the 34 provinces of the country.
A Taliban hunter is a guard while women wait to receive food rations spread by a humanitarian aid group in Kabul, Afghanistan, Tuesday 23 May 2023. (AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi, file)
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Roggio also said that the Taliban Al-Qaida allows to lead religious schools, safe houses for leaders in the terrorist network and their families who pass between Afghanistan and Iran, as well as a weapon deficiency depot.
“Afghanistan actually looks much worse today than it seemed on September 10, 2001, the day before the attacks of 9/11,” said Roggio.
