When former Vice President Kamala Harris announced that she would not run for the Governor of California, she seemed to leave the door open for another shot in the White House in 2028.
However, the real Democratic competition to view is not Harris.
On the contrary, unpredictable as it seems to some, york rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez seems to be the leader for the presidential nomination of Democrats 2028, she was allowed to abandon a senate campaign, which she would almost certainly win.
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In other words, at the moment Kamala Harris will probably not be a president in 2028, but AOC could very well be the democratic nominated, with a shot in the White House.
New York Democrat Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez speaks during the May Day Rally of NYCLU for the rights of employees and immigrants to Foley Square, Thursday 1 May 2025, in New York. (AP Photo/Angelina Katsanis)
I say this for several reasons.
Firstly, it could be argued that AOC is currently even stronger than other presidential candidates in their career or respective races.
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On this point in the 2008 election cycle – coinciding with the summer of 2005 – Barack Obama was not even considered enough as a serious candidate to be admitted to polls.
Similarly, in the Primary 2020 – which was forced Harris to withdraw before a single mood was released – Harris’ Highwater Mark was out for two years in an AXIOS poll for two years.
That was good for the 5th place, who lagged out former President Biden with 15 points, and even Oprah Winfrey with 9 points.
Conversely, Ocasio-Cortez is already a top finisher in the democratic primary polls of 2028.
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AOC (10%) is 3rd per race to the Polling Aggreator of the White House, behind former transport secretary Pete Buttigieg and Gov. Gavin Newsom (13% each) – a virtual draw – when Harris is not included.
And when polls have been admitted to Harris, the former VP (21%) is far below even a barrier of 30%, after seeing her support falling 14 points since January, while AOCs have risen with 9 points.
Former democratic presidential nominated vice -president Kamala Harris is taken only a few months after the elections. File: Harris speaks during a campaign field outside the Atlanta Civic Center, Saturday 2 November 2024. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)
Still, in individual polls where Harris and AOC are tested together, AOC gave a four -point lead on the former VP (19% to 15%), according to Atlasintel Polling.
Similarly, political gambling locations such as polymarket Ocasio-Cortez show with the 2nd best chances, with only four points behind (20% to 16%). Harris is in the 5th with only 6%.
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In addition, AOC (46%) is higher than President Trump (44%), as well as vice -president JD Vance and former vice -president Kamala Harris (42%each), per atlasintel.
There may also be a reason to assume that AOC might as well do in a general election as Newsom or Buttigieg.
In a series of hypothetical 2028-matchups VANCE against top democrats, Vance’s three-point lead ahead of AOC (44% to 41%) is almost identical to his lead over newsom (45% to 42%) and on Pete Buttigieg (44% to 43%), per Emerson.
In particular, Harris was not even tested in the poll of Emerson.
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Behind the strong polls of Ocasio-Cortez are its dominant fundraising and convening skills, especially her ability to generate enthusiasm.
Recently, The Wall Street Journal reported That AOC collected more than $ 15 million in 2025 – almost double speaker Mike Johnson, with 99% arrival From donors of small dollars.
It is the honor of Harris, the former VP, raised a historical amount during the 2024 campaign, but after he had failed in generating enthusiasm, donor fatigue is already clear.
Even prior to the recent announcement of Harris, reports had mentioned the “lack of enthusiasm” among large donors for a second presidential offer – an ominous sign before a candidacy is even announced.
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On the other hand, Ocasio-Cortez is currently one of the strongest-not the strongest drower of crowds of a democrat, as a result of her ability to generate levels of enthusiasm that Harris simply could not.
The national meetings of AOC with fellow Progressive Vermont Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders have signed tens of thousands of voters, including more than 30,000 in Los Angeles and Denver.
AOC (10%) is 3rd per race to the Polling Aggreator of the White House, behind former transport secretary Pete Buttigieg and Gov. Gavin Newsom (13% each) – a virtual draw – when Harris is not included.
Moreover, AOC has drawn considerably larger crowds, even in traditional Republican territories. In Idaho and Montana, 12,500 and 9,000 people respectively filled stadiums to hear the New York representative.
AOC also attracts this bustle in a year in which there are no elections, an impressive achievement.
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Certainly, there are legitimate doubts as to whether Ocasio-Cortez would be a viable candidate. She only becomes 39 years old a few weeks before the 2028 elections and her extreme left ideology can be less attractive in a general election.
And yet, in terms of winning a democratic primary, suggesting history and current polls that AOC may be a formidable candidate for whatever position she chooses.
Candidates without high national profiles have often emerged from democratic primaries, including George McGovern, as well as former presidents Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.
Furthermore, the concern that AOC is too far to the political links can actually help her in a primary where the electorate tends to be dominated by the left. Not to mention the fact that a considerable number of moderate Democrats will probably gather around the final nominee, regardless of who wins.
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On the contrary, Harris struggled with voters on both the left and in the middle and has shown no reason to believe that a run of 2028 would tackle those problems.
A way for AOC to reduce the age and election problems would be to challenge the Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer in the coming midterms, a Race -AOC would probably win.
It is the honor of Harris, the former VP, raised a historical amount during the 2024 campaign, but after he had failed in generating enthusiasm, donor fatigue is already clear.
A poll that was held earlier this spring showed that AOC Schumer led by nearly 20 points (55% to 36%), and Democrats would probably be encouraged by the idea of having a younger candidate than the 74-year-sitting.
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In the end, Ocasio-Cortez can still be considered whether OCASIO-CORTEZ can keep this momentum.
Nevertheless, the path to the democratic presidential nomination is currently considerably more open to AOC than other candidates, in particular Kamala Harris.
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