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What can we expect from global interest rate setters this week?
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Chancellor Rachel Reeves is preparing a new growth push
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The US and Saudi opposition could thwart the historic climate deal
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The ‘private ear’ that reveals hidden violence through audio forensics
You can listen to today’s top news stories with the FT News Briefing podcast.
We start with the world’s major central banks, which are widely expected to refrain from inflation-fighting rate hikes this week.
What you need to know: The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England are among the institutions set to set interest rates this week in the shadow of a second major energy price shock in five years.
Policy challengeThe war in the Gulf – and the resulting volatility in energy markets, exacerbated by US President Donald Trump’s social media posts – has pushed rate setters into uncertain territory, complicating their efforts to gauge inflation.
What this means: Rather than relying on one central prediction, policymakers are turning to multiple scenarios that take into account a range of possible outcomes in the Middle East conflict. Read the full story.
Here’s what else we’re keeping an eye on today:
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Economic data: Germany publishes the results of GfK’s consumer climate survey.
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Defense expenditure: The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute publishes its annual military expenditure report.
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Ties between Britain and the US: British King Charles and Queen Camilla begin a state visit to Washington and New York.
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Results: Exosens, Lumibird and Nordex report earnings.
Five more top stories
1. Chancellor Rachel Reeves prepares a new push for fiscal discipline, closer ties with the EU and planning reforms, in a bid to reassure embattled Labor MPs after an expected defeat in local elections next week. Reeves will warn that any massive bailout financed by loans would cause pain later through higher interest rates and mortgage payments, her allies said.
2. The alleged gunman who attacked the media event at the Washington Hilton had written Saturday evening about attacking Trump and other government officials, authorities said. Investigators were “still investigating” the shooter’s motives but believed he may have acted alone. Read the full story.
3. Efforts to revive a historic climate deal for the global shipping sector are failing on the American and Saudi opposition, with negotiators expecting a “real fight” this week. Opponents also say the UN has no authority to manage an international carbon revenue fund. Alice Hancock and Attracta Mooney have more on the discussions.
4. British Technology Ministers have expressed their concerns that Sir Keir Starmer’s EU reset plan could ‘stifle’ British innovation and damage the alliance with the US. The biggest concern “by far” is that Britain will be forced to adopt Brussels’ position on AI regulation, said a person briefed on the discussions.
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Data privacy concerns: Major British companies are left in the dark about how sensitive information is used when processed by AI systems abroad, a study has found.
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Palantir: Senior NHS workers are divided over the practical benefits of the US company’s “not terrible, not revolutionary” software.
5. Europe must do more to deter Moscow’s shadowy campaign to recruit marginalized people to carry out attacks, says the head of Estonian intelligence. Countries must be faster and more aggressive in calling out Russia-backed attacks, and prosecute saboteurs as publicly as possible, he added. Read the full interview with Harrys Puusepp.
Visual examination
From seizing satellites to attacking Earth from orbit, China is developing dual-use capabilities in an intensifying arms race with the US. Read the interactive story about Beijing’s plans to fight in space.
We are also reading. . .
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Rate paradox: On paper, a German manufacturer of industrial bolts and screws was one of the hardest hit by Trump’s “liberation day” last year. In practice, the levies have had little impact on turnover.
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Isolation of the border: Thousands of Christians trapped in Israeli-occupied Lebanese villages are determined not to leave despite mounting hardship.
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Shock Request: Tensions have come to light after the UAE asked cash-strapped ally Pakistan to immediately repay $3.5 billion.
Chart of the day
Europe pivoted to US liquefied natural gas and away from Russian supplies after 2022. Ten years ago, the region imported virtually no oil and gas from the US. Last year it got about 15 percent of its oil and more than half of its LNG from America. But the growing dependency does made Europe wary of relying too heavily on American supplies.
Take a break from the news. . .
Lawrence Abu Hamdan’s forensic audio research is fueled by the belief that sounds can reveal hidden violence, especially in cases that governments may wish to cover up. The Turner Prize winner talks about his work that spans art, activism and investigative journalism.
