The race to the moon has begun again. But the strategic competition unfolding today is far greater than our race with the Soviet Union in 1969. If China reaches the moon before the United States and establishes a permanent, manned presence, it will treat the lunar surface not as a peaceful scientific outpost but as an extension of its campaign to outdo America, intimidate our allies, and compromise our systems that keep the American homeland safe. This is no longer the stuff of science fiction.
President Donald Trump understands this threat and signed the Executive Order on Ensuring American Space Superiority, which made it abundantly clear that he wants the United States to lead this new space race – returning Americans to the moon by 2028 and establishing a permanent manned presence on the lunar surface.
Let me be clear: the fear that China could somehow “claim” the moon by arriving first misrepresents both geography and international reality. Two of the most important sites for settlement are the Shackleton Crater, which extends about the distance from Washington, DC, to Baltimore, Maryland, and the South Pole-Aitken Basin, which is about the distance from Washington, DC, to Denver, Colorado. The moon is huge.
The strategic concern and question for Congress is not who will arrive “next,” but who will establish a sustainable, scalable, and defensible presence on the lunar surface. China understands this demand and is well on its way to developing a reusable launch system within a decade to control this terrain and its abundant critical resources. The US must recognize this threat and address it with the urgency they demand.
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Earth’s shadow covers the full moon during a partial lunar eclipse as it sets under the American flag atop a building, Friday, Nov. 19, 2021, in downtown Kansas City, Missouri. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
The Obama-Biden administration’s Space Launch System (SLS), currently used for the Artemis missions, uses the 1980s architecture developed from the shuttle missions and has been strongly criticized by NASA’s former Inspector General during the Biden administration, who calculated that the cost of a single SLS launch was $4.2 billion, while nearly $64 billion has already been spent despite only one operational flight since 2022. This is a huge price tag with a limited payload and a launch cadence measured in years instead of months.
Given NASA’s struggles with the SLS, Chinese state-backed companies are now mimicking architectures that support fully reusable, self-landing heavy-lift rockets modeled after SpaceX’s Starship. As seen on February 11, China’s Long March 10 booster (developed in just eight years) successfully guided itself to a powered, vertical ocean crash. This is a clear signal that China is quickly catching up to us and recognizes that a country that can launch more often and move more mass will dominate.
The critical national security question is this: What happens if the US does not quickly emphasize prioritizing cost, capacity, and rhythm after Artemis III?
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First, we will likely see the formation of a permanent Chinese manned presence that will expand Beijing’s intelligence collection and space awareness of the Earth-moon system, allowing China to monitor U.S. and allied activities. Beijing has invested in capabilities designed to “degrade, damage, or destroy” U.S. satellites – the backbone of U.S. command and control and targeting activities. This has direct consequences for domestic security.
Trump is right to push for a layered, space-enabled missile defense known as the “Golden Dome,” but if the Chinese control the ultimate high ground, it can build a moon-based counter-command designed to blind, spoof, disrupt, or keep at risk the space layer that makes that shield possible. Simply put, you can’t defend the homeland from above if Beijing can contest the space above you. The United States must establish that capability first – calling it the “Donald J. Trump Moon Base” and securing its operational advantage over the Chinese.
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Second, if China remains untouched on the lunar surface, it would certainly increase the risk of espionage, sabotage, and interference in the gray zone of our own future lunar infrastructure.
Given NASA’s struggles with the SLS, Chinese state-backed companies are now mimicking architectures that support fully reusable, self-landing heavy-lift rockets modeled after SpaceX’s Starship.
Finally, Beijing will try to translate its presence into control over the resources on the lunar surface. It is critical that we get ahead of the Chinese in extracting these crucial minerals, of which China already has a stronghold on Earth. We need these crucial minerals for national defense, economic prosperity and, frankly, our sovereignty.
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The moon is the ultimate high ground; we cannot afford to be the first on Earth, but the second in space. If China goes to the moon, fine, but if they return regularly and turn their presence into control – over the “Golden Dome,” over our critical infrastructure on Earth and in low Earth orbit, and over the resources the moon provides – America will be permanently exposed to its greatest adversary.
To defeat China, Congress must demand accountability for delays and cost overruns, stop blindly subsidizing outdated systems, and focus on reusability. Our continued homeland security depends on it. Let’s put America first and prioritize cost, capacity and cadence.
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