President Donald Trump’s recently released National Security Strategy breaks the mold of White House strategy documents that are the product of an elite policy consensus. From the outset, the document declares that America’s foreign policy establishment has “gone astray,” overburdening the nation abroad and ignoring the wishes and instincts of ordinary citizens. The document presents its “America First” approach as a strategy based on the will of We the People.
Conveniently, we now have a clear picture of what the American people are really thinking when it comes to our most pressing national security challenges. Our Reagan National Defense Survey, released just days before the strategy, provides one of the clearest assessments of public attitudes toward national defense, foreign policy, allies and adversaries. Together, the strategy and research reveal a story of both striking alignment and meaningful misalignment—a mixed bag that says as much about America’s evolving worldview as it does about the administration’s.
The people and the president are remarkably in agreement on the essentials. The strategy elevates “peace through strength” to a core principle and declares that America must support “the most powerful, lethal and technologically advanced military in the world” to deter adversaries and maintain global stability. Americans emphatically agree. The Reagan survey shows that 87% of the public believes it is important for the United States to have the strongest military in the world and 71% say the world is more peaceful when America leads from a position of unparalleled strength. This is a national consensus at a time when consensus is hard to find.
AMERICA MUST RESPOND TO CHINA’S MASSIVE ECONOMIC WAR WITH A UNITED FRONT
The alignment continues when one looks at the government’s key modernization priorities. The strategy calls for a “Golden Dome,” a next-generation missile defense shield for the homeland and a “Golden Fleet” to counter China’s vast advantage in naval shipbuilding. Here too, the American people are ahead of the political class. Sixty-eight percent support major new investments to build the Golden Dome system, and when China is told it can produce more than 200 ships for every American ship, an astonishing 88% say the United States needs more production capacity – while 62% say it needs much more. The public is not only receptive to the rebuilding of American military power; it demands it.
The strategy and opinion polls align well with China. The NSS pays more attention to the People’s Republic of China than to any other competitor, describing how “American elites – during four successive administrations of both political parties – were either willing enablers of China’s strategy or in denial.” President Trump is seeking to “rebalance” the U.S. economic relationship with Beijing, counter its military buildup and deter attempts to dominate strategic supply chains, framing — but not naming — China as the defining threat of this century. The American people agree. Forty-eight percent view China as the greatest threat to the United States — ahead of Russia two to one — and a large majority support forward deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, including shifting U.S. military assets to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack. Americans understand what is at stake. They want the United States to compete – and win.
But the places of divergence are just as revealing. For all its clarity on China, the strategy takes a more subdued tone when describing America’s allies, especially in Europe. It calls into question Europe’s economic vitality, strategic reliability and even ‘civilizational self-confidence’, suggesting that the continent may not be a reliable partner in the long term. When it comes to Russia, the strategy is relatively moderate, prioritizing “strategic stability” in the US-Russia relationship despite Russia’s war against Ukraine and actions against NATO.
The American people, on the other hand, are extraordinarily clear-eyed about who is a friend and who is an enemy. Reagan’s survey shows that 75% of Americans see Ukraine as an ally or partner, 66% say the same about Israel and 67% about Taiwan. Survey respondents overwhelmingly support limiting sales of advanced semiconductors to China, with 65% in favor of strict limits to prevent Beijing from gaining military or strategic advantages. Yet the Trump administration’s strategy opens the door to continued chip sales, prioritizing dollar flows and commercial reciprocity over maintaining America’s long-term technological edge. Meanwhile, 79% view Russia as an enemy and 77% view China as an adversary. These are not fringe views; they are overwhelming majorities. Americans are not confused, conflicted, or ambivalent about where the threats lie. They see the world as it is.
The same clarity emerges in the attitude towards international involvement. While the strategy calls for a “predisposition to non-interventionism” and pushes for a dramatically narrower definition of U.S. vital interests, Americans take a more outward-looking view. Sixty-four percent say the United States should be more involved and take the lead internationally—not withdraw or step back—while only 33% prefer a less involved approach. This is not public-demanding isolation; it is a public demanding leadership based on purpose and realism. They want America to avoid endless wars, but they also want an American-led world order.
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NATO presents a different tension. The strategy’s skepticism toward Europe contrasts with continued American support for the alliance. Sixty-eight percent of the public has a positive image of NATO, and 76% support defending a NATO ally if it is attacked. Even among those who initially express support for the US withdrawal, large majorities reconsider when told that NATO allies have committed to increasing their defense spending to 5% of GDP – a tribute to President Trump’s leadership on this issue. Americans agree with the strategy when it comes to fairness and burden-sharing, but they also understand that alliances are strategic assets – not liabilities.
The Middle East also reveals another divide. The strategy argues that the region should no longer dominate U.S. foreign policy, noting its declining importance to U.S. economic security due to rising U.S. energy production. Yet the Americans remain very alert to threats in the region. The majority supports preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, prefers to provide military assistance to Israel under certain circumstances, and remains wary of terrorism and instability emanating from the region. Americans understand that when we turn our eyes from the Middle East, we do so at our peril.
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Taken together, the Reagan investigation reveals something profound. The American people are not isolationist. They are not naive. They are not confused about the nature of America’s alliances or the threats the country faces. They are realists – clear-eyed on adversaries, supporting our allies, committed to deterrence, and overwhelmingly united around the principle that American strength is essential to global peace. President Trump’s National Security Strategy takes these instincts into account by prioritizing the development of unparalleled military power, industrial revitalization, and strategic competition with China. But the skepticism toward European allies, the relative calm toward Russia, and the approach to the Middle East diverge from where the American people actually stand.
In the United States, national security strategies often receive little attention outside Washington DC. But allied capitals and adversaries from Beijing to Moscow read the NSS carefully and take it seriously. If “America First” means aligning foreign policy with the will of the American people, then the clarity of that will should guide the implementation of the strategy. Americans know who their friends are, who their enemies are, and what it takes to keep the country safe.
