Unlock the Witte House newsletter for free
In April, President Trump gave trading partners 90 days to conclude trade agreements, or confronted with the restoration of his so -called mutual rates. July 9 (last Wednesday) was D-Day.
The deadline came and went. Trump kicked the look on the road and gave trading partners until 1 August to close a deal or again. And this time, he Real it means.
What does this have Whom-whomp Handelsdeadline has actually taught us about the way Trump negotiates?
Dmitry Grozoubinski agrees with the senior trader of Mainft, Alan Beattie, during this week’s podcast The Economics Show. Dmitry is a former trade negotiator in Australia and founder of the Consultancy Explytrade.
He is also the author of Why politicians lie about trade – Who, as Alan notes, feels quite appropriate at the moment.
Trump’s trade strategy is not only unusual, says Grozoubinski; It also seems to be quite ineffective. Some of the glitches, such as when Trump sent a rate-threatening letter to the king of Thailand, can be accused of what Alan calls “bumbling incompetence”.
Other defects are more fundamental:
-
If a deadline is not a deadline, it loses its power a bit. Or as Dmitry says: “If you are in danger of shooting a hostage and then you will continue to push the deadline back … it is not entirely clear that you are going to do it.”
-
The US does not give its trading partners the opportunity to paint negotiations as a victory at home. Dmitry again: “Every outcome or every step of progress is immediately announced to the press as a triumph over a weak opponent.” That makes it “much more difficult for the people they need to faves to give those favors.”
-
It is not entirely clear what the Trump administration actually wants from its tariff threats. Does the president want to bring things home? Does he think the US is being scammed? Or, as Dmitry suggests, does he just want to show that he is ‘Apex Predator’ of the world?
The podcast can be opened for free and there is a complete transcript of interview. Your thoughts have been welcomed in the FTAV mark.
