President Donald Trump’s new deal in the South Kaucasus has ended conflict for decades and Washington has a rare strategic foot on the ground on the northern border of Iran, experts say.
The corridor has long been in the middle of the Nagorno-Karabach conflict, which has fueled tens of thousands of displaced and three decades of instability. Trump’s intervention brought both parties to the table and created what observers say is a new trade and security life line that connects the Caspian pelvis to Europe, which completely bypassed Iran.
Armenia and Azerbaijani leaders try to alleviate Russian and Iranian concern after the American mediated peace agreement
A view from the southern border of Armenia unveils the ARAX river, visibly over the water with Iran. This intersection is an essential lifeline for Armenia, which facilitates essential trade and energy flow, especially because the tensions rise over the proposed Zangzur -Gang. Iran strongly opposes the corridor, for fear that it would break its direct access to the country to Armenia and reduce its role as a regional transithub. The corridor, planning to connect Azerbaijan with his Nakhchivan Exclave via Armenian territory, has become a flash point in regional geopolitics. (Anthony Pizzoferrato/Central -East images/AFP via Getty images)
Known as the Trump route for Peace & Prosperity (Tripp), economically, the agreement protects Washington a direct role in supervising the flow of Caspian hydrocarbons to Europe. The US will manage the rail and road infrastructure, telecom networks and energy pipelines that run through the hallway, giving American companies a dominant position in regional transit for oil, gas and goods. By controlling this artery, the US not only generates billions in future trade and investments, but also aligns Europe in alternative supply routes that reduce dependence on both Russia and Iran.
For allies, the corridor offers cheaper and safer access to Caspian energy. For Tehran, the lost income, lost leverage and the end of his ability to act as a mandatory gatekeeper for East-West Commerce represents.
Zand said that the deal is not only historical, but also a direct victory for Washington. “It’s a great win for the US,” she said. “American contractors will supervise oil and gas from the Caspian Basin, led to Europe through Zangezur and Turkey. The profit margins are large and it all happens under the blessing of NATO.”
Sand said the potential will go even further. “Nobody is talking about it, but I don’t think it is excluded to see us there,” she said. “If that happens, then the Khamenei regime and Russia switch.”
Trump makes peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan
Us President Donald Trump (C), Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev (L) and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan Display The Agreement They Signed in The State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, DC on August 8, 2025. President Werre Saiday Werradyp Saintay Committed to a permanent peace as he hosted a white house summit with the leaders of the two South Caucasus nations, who have fought for decades. (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty images)
For Iran, the corridor represents what Zand called a nightmare scenario. Tehran has long used his geography to shape energy and trade flows. By introducing the US in the region, the new deal Iran takes effectively from that leverage. Sand stated it in large terms: “Iran has the shape of a cat, a sitting cat. This corridor literally runs above the cat’s ears. It bypasses Iran, takes money away from the regime and pushes them into the cold.”
An infographic entitled ‘Construction of roads and railways that extend to the Zangzur -Gang will take place without interruption.’ Once built, the corridor connects the western provinces of Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan via Armenia, which further extends to China, Central -Asia, the Caspian Sea, the Caucasus and Turkey. (Yasin Demirci/Anadolu via Getty images)
“They still have ties, and the regime is an opportunistic actor just as much as an ideological one. If there is a way to throw stones in this agreement, or to extract concessions on the back, they will try.”
At the same time, he said that the strategic image is clear. “The Islamic Republic is essentially cut from this route,” he said. “This is not only a critical course that could bring stability in the South Caucasus and economic improvement for all countries involved also drives home, the point that the regime has been such a poor guardian of the national interest of Iran that the Iranian state is excluded from an important transit route just above the border.”
The highest leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, focuses the media while voting for parliamentary elections in Tehran, Iran in May 2024. (Photo by Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty images)
The timing, argued sand, makes the impact even greater. She pointed to Iran’s weakening position since 7 October 2023 and the recent 12-day war of Israel with Tehran. “The regime itself was isolated when it couldn’t come to Hamas or Hezbollah’s salvation. The Shiites of Iraq say they don’t want to be controlled, Syria is out, and Hezbollah has been demolished. For those of us who had been watching the regime for decades, we always knew it was a paper Tiger.”
The killing of senior IRGC commanders and nuclear scientists has deepened the feeling of vulnerability in Tehran. “They can grab and blow over blowing the house, but the truth is that there is now a lot of fear among the leaders of the regime,” said Zand. “Khamenei is even hiding again.”
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Ben Taleblu added that Washington now uses these shifts to make the weakness of Iran in opportunities. “Where the regime is weak, that invites pushback, either military or economic,” he said. “The US has followed Israel’s military success against the Islamic Republic with strikes of its own strikes against nuclear facilities, and now follows the battlefield success of Azerbaijan with a political and economic success of his own. This corridor is another example of America when Tehan is the most vulnerable” “”
An aerial photo of the construction of roads and railways that will go through the Zangzur -Gang, which will connect the western provinces with Nakhchivan and will also be one of the routes of the central corridor extending from China to Central -Asia, the Caspian Sea, the Caucasus and Turkey. (Photo by Resul Rehimov/Anadolu via Getty images)
Sand, whose father was a well -known Iranian journalist and intellectually murdered by the regime, said that she regards Trump’s direct involvement as the key to the success of the corridor. “Because it’s Trump, it makes the difference,” she said. “Trump does not give it not to hurt the feelings of people. He responds to how people act. And with this movement he sits over Iran like a vulture nonsense, watching, ready.”
For dissidents such as Zand, the corridor represents more than a transport route. “We have prayed for this for decades,” she said. “Until the regime has disappeared, people in Iran will remain too scared to get up again. But this course is a blessing. It shows that the regime is surrounded and the days are numbered.”
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The deal was reached with NATO support and has already been compared by some observers with historic peace agreements. Sand believes that the importance is not only in the termination of a 30-year conflict, but also in changing the American presence in the Caucasus into a permanent reality. “The regime knows that the mold is up.”
