A rise in Somali piracy is fueling fears of a Red Sea “security vacuum” across the region, as analysts warn of a revived maritime crime playbook now linked to the Iran-backed Houthis.
The warning follows a May 2 report from the Yemeni coast guard that armed men hijacked an oil tanker off the coast of Shabwa and steered it towards the Gulf of Aden. The ship has since been located while repairs are underway. Reuters reported this.
“Somali and Houthi-affiliated groups are working together – using skiffs and new technology to attack ships with coordination not seen in a decade – while Saudi crude diverted from the Strait of Hormuz has created a ‘target-rich environment for them,’” he added.
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Members of the Puntland Maritime Police Force (PMPF) sit on a speedboat as they patrol the waters of the Gulf of Aden off the coast of Bosaso in the semi-autonomous region of Puntland, Somalia. (Abdirahman Hussein/Reuters)
“There is an opportunistic alignment, with the Houthis providing geopolitical cover and advanced GPS and surveillance, and Somali groups providing the boots on the ground or skiffs on the water,” Shalev said.
After Shabwa’s MT Eureka took off, Shalev, a former Israeli naval officer, suggested that what he called the “Somali model” had returned “with a vengeance.”
“This is a transactional cooperation, in the very area where the Houthis are active and eager to cause damage and support their IRGC sponsor,” he said, before describing how pirates would hijack the entire ship and its cargo and take them to a safe anchorage “such as Qandala or Garacad.”
“Then they demand ransom for the entire package: the ship, the tens of millions of dollars in oil and the crew,” he said.
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Somali and Houthi-affiliated groups are working together using skiffs and new technology to attack ships with coordination not seen in a decade. (Jason R. Zalasky/U.S. Navy via Getty Images)
The increase in regional risk is also exacerbated by the volatility of the Strait of Hormuz, according to Shalev. As Iranian-backed threats in the Persian Gulf persist, global energy flows are shifting.
“Due to the closure and instability of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has been diverting millions of barrels of crude oil per day through the east-west pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu,” the former Israeli naval officer said.
“This creates an environment rich with audiences in a sector that was previously in decline. With Brent Crude prices rising – peaking at almost $115/barrel this quarter – the price for a successful hijack has never been higher.”
The risk level in the waters off Somalia was recently upgraded to ‘substantial’ following a wave of hijackings and attempted attacks that began on April 21, according to Windward AI and warnings from the British maritime trading operations (UKMTO).
Within days, at least three ships were hijacked: a Somali-flagged fishing boat on April 21, followed by the Palau-flagged tanker Honor 25 (IMO 1099735), and on April 26 a cargo ship was seized and diverted to Garacad.
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The increase in regional piracy risk is exacerbated by the volatility of the Strait of Hormuz, as Iranian-backed threats in the Persian Gulf persist and global energy flows shift. (Mass Communications Specialist 1st Class Cassandra Thompson/US Navy via Getty Images)
Shalev, who was the chief architect of Nigeria’s ‘Falcon Eye’ project – a surveillance system that was successful reduced piracy in those waters to 0% – warned that the distraction of global warships is being exploited.
“As international naval forces deal with missile threats, a ‘security vacuum’ has now emerged in the region, allowing pirates to travel great distances in skiffs to board vulnerable commercial vessels,” he said.
“Somali piracy, suppressed for years, has seen a sharp resurgence that also correlates perfectly with the Houthi crisis in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden,” Shalev said.
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The Red Sea carries 12% to 15% of global trade and about 30% of container traffic, and carries more than $1 trillion worth of goods annually, including oil and LNG. to reports.
“The current crisis proves that you cannot ‘patrol’ your way out of this; you have to see the threat before it ever reaches the ship,” Shalev said.
