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Former Spanish central bank governor Pablo Hernández de Cos is the most qualified candidate in a closely contested race to succeed Christine Lagarde as president of the European Central Bank, according to a survey of monetary policy experts from OMFIF.
The 20 experts questioned A survey by the London-based economic think tank this month found that Hernández de Cos topped the list of five top candidates for the job when assessing their merits on nine dimensions, including central banking experience, reputation for leadership and consensus building, capability and experience in crisis management.
Hernández de Cos, currently chief executive of the Basel-based Bank for International Settlements, was followed by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, former Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot and outgoing French Governor François Villeroy de Galhau.
Hernández de Cos is generally seen as a centrist with a slight moderate bias, while Villeroy de Galhau is seen as a centrist and Nagel and Knot are considered moderate hawks.
The ECB president is chosen in an “opaque” process by EU governments and the outcome is difficult to predict due to its political nature, OMFIF vice-president John Orchard told the FT. Historically, it has been the subject of last-minute behind-the-scenes horse trading between capitals.
Spain and Germany are the two largest members of the eurozone who have never held the top job in the ECB’s 27-year history. But the fact that the European Commission is currently led by a German is seen as a major obstacle for Nagel.
Although Lagarde’s term does not end until October 2027, a “soft lobbying process has already begun among some of the contenders,” suggesting that “there is a chance that the decision will be made sooner rather than later,” Orchard said.
The FT reported in February that Lagarde expected to resign early to allow outgoing French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to fill one of the EU’s most important jobs ahead of the crucial 2027 French presidential election.
However, renewed inflation risks resulting from the war in Iran could hinder that plan. “When there [are] big clouds on the horizon, the captain is not leaving the ship – and this captain is not going to leave the ship because I see clouds,” Lagarde told Bloomberg TV last week.
OMFIF’s survey, which surveyed the consulting firm’s academic advisors and board members, ranked the five most frequently mentioned contenders, with 1 being the highest and 5 the lowest.
Hernández de Cos, who took over the BIS in 2025 and led the Bank of Spain for eight years, received an average rating of 1.77. He also came top in an FT poll of academic and private economists published earlier this year.
The poll also returned high marks for Nagel (1.9), Knot (1.92) and Villeroy de Galhau (1.94), while ECB board member Isabel Schnabel finished fifth (2.57).
“It’s a tight race” with “a number of highly qualified candidates for the job,” Orchard said, adding that the risk of disruptions in government bond markets in the coming years could test the financial markets expertise and skills of the next ECB president.
In both dimensions, Nagel received the highest marks of all five contenders. Hernández de Cos was ranked highest for his training in monetary economics, his reputation for consensus building, his European credentials and his ability to gain support from key member states other than his home country.
In the past, the front runners were not always successful and compromise candidates emerged towards the end of the process. The late appointment of then IMF boss Lagarde in 2019 surprised many observers.
Last year the FT reported that Lagarde had discussed leaving the ECB early to become president of the World Economic Forum.
Data visualization by Keith Fray
