For those wondering about the state of oil prices, gasoline, and stocks, here’s what President Trump said this afternoon: “I think the war is pretty much complete. They have no navy, no communications, they have no air force.” And that America is “very far” ahead of its initial estimated time frame of four to five weeks.
Shortly after the president’s statement, oil fell to $85 a barrel after surpassing $100 a barrel earlier in the day, and stocks ultimately rose more than 200 points.
And I have confidence in him and his early judgments, which were excellent. And I am also confident that the American people will stand behind Mr. Trump’s epic fury to change the course of history, and completely change the international landscape and change the balance of power in the world in favor of America, the Western democracies, of course Israel, and our friends in the Middle East. I even saw a 52 percent favorable Rasmussen poll.
As I’ve said before, this is akin to the fall of the Berlin Wall and President Reagan’s ending of Soviet communism. Or FDR ending fascism in World War II. And Mr. Trump ends ISIS in the first term, and now ends the barbaric terror state of Iran, finally ending Iran’s 47-year perpetual war against America. A temporary drop in gasoline prices is a very small price to pay to achieve literally earth-shattering results.
Mr. Trump is bending the arc of history toward freedom and prosperity. If you’re looking for economic impact estimates, they’re a dime a dozen, and I wouldn’t put any faith in them at this point. Inflation, recession, stagflation.
I suppose it all depends on the duration of the war, which is unknowable, but it won’t be six months or twelve months or more. So why bother guessing?
We can say this factually: according to OPEC, world oil production in the third quarter of 2025 was 106.3 million barrels per day, more than global oil demand, which was 105.5 million barrels per day.
If you take away a fifth of oil production because the Strait of Hormuz is not functioning, of course you have a terrible Strait. But Trump is moving quickly to reopen Hormuz with reinsurance guarantees and U.S. Navy protection. When? Probably a week or two, maybe less.
Iran will never stop this. And if they dare, it will make things even more catastrophic for them. Hormuz will not stop history. Investors need to look through this war and see the tremendous prosperity that lies on the other side. And ordinary American working people should celebrate America’s greatness.
