“Think of Mojtaba Khamenei as his steroid-using father.”
“Mojtaba was already operating as a ‘mini-supreme leader’ in the Bayt-e Rahbari – his father’s office and the core of power in the regime,” Aarabi said.
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File photo shows Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, attending a demonstration marking Jerusalem Day in Tehran. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
“His father had created the Bayt’s vast apparatus as a hidden power structure to ensure continuity should he be eliminated – and with Mojtaba’s appointment, this is exactly what we will get,” Aarabi said.
President Donald Trump also responded to the rise of Mojtaba Khamenei. In an interview with the New York PostTrump said he was “not happy” about the younger Khamenei replacing his father as leader of Iran’s theocratic system, but declined to comment on how the United States might respond. “I’m not going to tell you,” Trump said when asked about his plans for the new supreme leader. ‘I’m not going to tell you. I’m not happy with him.’
“Previously, there were rumors that if Mojtaba became the leader, he could implement reforms that would both open up the domestic political space and bring a more interactive approach to foreign policy,” the source said.
“Now, however, this possibility seems very weak.”
Mojtaba was elected “amid disputes, controversies and pressure from the IRGC,” the source said, meaning he “owes his appointment to their support and therefore cannot act against their wishes.”
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Military members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) in western Tehran, Iran (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Built within the Iranian security state
Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, has spent decades building influence within the power structures around Iran’s supreme leader.
Born in 1969 in Mashhad, he pursued administrative studies in Tehran, Iran, after the 1979 Islamic Revolution that brought his father to prominence. However, analysts say that over time its influence has developed less through traditional administrative authority and more through Iran’s security institutions.
In 2019, the United States sanctioned Mojtaba under Executive Order 13867. The U.S. Treasury Department said he “represented the Supreme Leader in an official capacity despite never being elected or appointed to any government position other than working in his father’s office.”
Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said Mojtaba’s background reflects a broader shift within the Islamic Republic.
People hold signs depicting Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei together with the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during a rally in support of Mojtaba Khamenei, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 9, 2026. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters)
Aarabi said Mojtaba has consolidated his influence behind the scenes for years.
“His past tells us that he enjoys micro-managing every aspect of authority to satisfy his thirst for power,” Aarabi said, describing how Mojtaba allegedly moved IRGC command centers to his office during protests, manipulated election results and installed loyalists in state institutions.
Since 2019, Aarabi added, Mojtaba has also been implementing what he described as his father’s attempt to “purify” the regime by promoting ideological loyalists throughout the political system.
“Mojtaba is a deeply anti-Semitic, anti-American and anti-Western ideologue,” Aarabi said. “He has been personally involved in repression in Iran and terror plots abroad.”
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Shia Muslims from Kashmir carry photos of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as they march in a protest rally on the fourth day of mourning in Magam, Jammu and Kashmir, on March 4, 2026. (Faisal Khan/Anadolu/Getty Images)
Analysts see a tougher line ahead
Analysts say Mojtaba’s rise could further strengthen the role of Iran’s security institutions.
“The rise of the younger Khamenei accelerates trend lines that have been visible in Iranian politics and national security for years,” Ben Taleblu said. “From one Khamenei to another, it can be expected that things in Iran will go from bad to worse if this regime survives.”
“And like the elder Khamenei, corruption runs in the family,” he added.
Ben Taleblu warned that the regime may also escalate tensions externally as a survival strategy.
“The regime knows it is weak but believes it can win a prize and deepen a crisis to survive,” he said.
For opposition groups in Iran, the leadership transition signals continuity rather than reform.
“He is Khamenei’s son and they have the same ideology and the same strategy and they are trying to continue the same policies,” said Khalid Azizi, spokesman for the Kurdish Democratic Party of Iran.
“So far it is very difficult to say what he will do and will he pursue a different policy? I do not expect this.”
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On March 1, 2026 in Sana’a, Yemen. pro-Iranian protesters wave billboards depicting Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei, flags of Yemen and Iran, weapons and chant slogans during a rally held to condemn the US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran and the killing of Khamenei and several military officials. (Mohammed Hamoud/Getty Images)
“As I said,” the source said, “this possibility is very weak.”
“Basically,” Aarabi said, “Mojtaba is his father who uses steroids. He’s certainly not MBS.’
