Amid the ongoing conflict with Iran, analysts say the Trump administration should pressure Lebanon to fulfill its obligations to disarm the Iran-backed terrorist group as it drags the country into a new war with Israel.
The warning comes as the IDF attacked multiple Hezbollah targets on Friday in response to the terror group’s launch of missiles and drones towards Israel on March 2. The first attack since a ceasefire in November 2024 ended the previous round of fighting.
Smoke rises after attacks on Beirut’s southern suburbs, following an escalation between Hezbollah and Israel amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, seen from Baabda, Lebanon, March 5, 2026. (Mohamed Azakir/Reuters)
Since the first day of renewed fighting, the IDF has carried out more than 200 attacks across Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah’s military, media and financial infrastructure, as well as the group’s operatives and affiliated networks, according to a March 5 analysis by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.Magazine for the Long War. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz also threatened Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem.
The renewed fighting has exposed deep tensions within the Lebanese government, which in recent days called on Hezbollah to disarm and ordered security forces to prevent attacks on Israel from Lebanese territory.
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Smoke rises after Israeli attacks in Lebanon, following an escalation between Hezbollah and Israel amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, seen from Marjayoun, Lebanon, March 5, 2026. (Karamallah Daher/Reuters)
Schenker says the move reflects frustration in Beirut rather than a fundamental policy change. “The Lebanese government’s latest cabinet vote on the disarmament of Hezbollah is nothing new,” Schenker said. “It is a repeat of the cabinet decision of last August, which made the disarmament of Hezbollah mandatory. The language may be sharper, but the message is the same.”
“It is a reflection of the government’s frustration and despair over Hezbollah dragging Lebanon into a new war with Israel,” he added. “It also reflects the inability of the Lebanese Armed Forces to take its mission of disarmament seriously so far.”
Hezbollah’s latest attacks appear to have caught Lebanese officials off guard. Reports indicate the group had previously assured officials it would not intervene in a broader regional conflict linked to Iran.
Schenker said the episode underlines a long-standing reality in Lebanon’s political system. “The government of Lebanon has never tried to control Hezbollah,” he said. “The few months the LAF spent on disarmament in southern Lebanon were carried out with the consent of Hezbollah and coordinated with the militia.”
Still, public frustration in Lebanon could change the political climate. “Given the growing popular anger toward Hezbollah, the political environment should be more favorable for the LAF to confront Hezbollah,” Schenker said.
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Iran is rebuilding ties with Hezbollah as Trump gives a 10- to 15-day deadline. (Fadel Itani/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
“The fear of a ‘civil war’ – that is, Hezbollah committing violence against the government – persists,” he added. “But increasingly, Lebanese prefer to take that risk and potentially gain sovereignty rather than be in a state of perpetual war with Israel.”
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According to David Daoud, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Hezbollah’s decision to attack Israel despite the ceasefire reflects the group’s willingness to escalate the conflict even as the Lebanese government tries to prevent another war.
The crisis has also attracted international attention. French President Emmanuel Macron called for urgent steps to prevent Lebanon from sliding deeper into war.
“Everything must be done to prevent this country, so close to France, from becoming embroiled in war again,” Macron wrote in a statement on X on March 5, after a meeting with Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese leaders.
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Lebanese President Joseph Aoun (R) meets with US President Donald Trump’s Deputy Special Representative for the Middle East, Morgan Ortagus (L) at the Baabda Palace in Beirut, Lebanon, on February 7, 2025 (Photo by Lebanese Presidency / Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Macron said Hezbollah must “immediately cease fire on Israel,” as he urged Israel to avoid expanding military operations in Lebanon.
For now, analysts say the outcome could depend on whether the Lebanese government is willing to confront Hezbollah directly or continue to tolerate the Iranian terror force, which has long operated outside government control.
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