The murder of drug lord Nemesio ‘El Mencho’ Oseguera Cervantes may seem like a decisive victory in the war on drugs. But in Washington and Mexico City it is also seen as something more strategic: a visible response to mounting American pressure that has changed Mexico’s approach to the cartels.
The operation, carried out by Mexican forces with support from U.S. intelligence agencies, underscores the deepening coordination between the two governments as fentanyl trafficking remains a central political and security issue in the United States.
“This was before the Maduro raid,” Cruz added, “but the raid was not a surprise – it was clear that the president would do what was necessary to keep America safe. I will say that Mexico has turned a sharp corner, and this is a real manifestation of that. Thousands of Americans are still alive today because Trump was reelected and Republicans took control of Congress. If we had kept the Democrats’ open borders policy in place, thousands more Americans would have died from murder, other violent crimes and drugs. overdoses.”
A soldier stands guard over a charred vehicle after it was set on fire in Cointzio, Mexico, on Sunday, February 22, 2026, following the death of ‘El Mencho’. (AP Photo/Armando Solis)
“US pressure has absolutely determined Mexico’s actions. Pressure is the only thing that forces the Mexican state to act,” said Ford Maldonado. “The Trump administration has been explicit in linking trade interests and even the possibility of unilateral action to Mexico’s performance against the cartels, which has completely changed the incentive structure in Mexico City. When Washington demands visible results, Mexico is under pressure to produce something visible.”
She said the murder itself fits that dynamic. “The murder of El Mencho is an attempt to do that,” she said. “El Mencho was one of the most wanted men in the hemisphere, and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel is one of the most violent and militarized cartels in Mexico. His death gives the Mexican government something concrete to point to – a valuable target – and claim they are getting results. But these are only tactical victories designed to alleviate immediate pressure from Washington.”
DEATH TOLL RISE AFTER MEXICAN DRUG CARTEL LEADER KILLED IN US-BACKED OPERATION
A worker sorts freshly printed copies of the Prime Minister’s newspaper with the headline “US has mapped ‘El Mencho’ and Mexico has delivered the final blow, caught between two fires,” following the drug lord’s murder on Sunday, February 22, 2026. (Jose Luis González/Reuters)
Ford Maldonado warned that high-profile takedowns have historically failed to achieve lasting stability.
‘The problem is that tactical victories are not the same as strategic change. Tactical victories are no longer enough. If it were, the long list of previous arrests and extraditions would have already resolved this. I believe Washington is now looking for something deeper: the disruption of the ecosystem that allows cartels to thrive. Mexico has a problem with corruption, territorial control and political patronage, and they need to tackle the political and financial networks that keep the cartels in power.”
Smoke rises from burning vehicles amid a wave of violence following a military operation that killed ‘El Mencho’, in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, on February 22, 2026. (Screenshot taken from a social media video. @morelifediares via Instagram/Youtube/via Reuters)
She also pointed out internal Mexican political dynamics that could complicate the story.
In June 2020, Omar García Harfuch, then Mexico City police chief, survived an assassination attempt widely attributed to El Mencho. García Harfuch is now Mexico’s Minister of Security and Civil Defense and oversaw the operation that killed the cartel leader.
“Therefore, there may be other motives at play,” said Ford Maldonado. “The Jalisco New Generation Cartel has long had a very bloody rivalry with the Sinaloa Cartel, which some say is the traditional cartel partner of the Morena regime. So when the Mexican government goes after a cartel’s rivals, it has long been accused of tolerating or colluding, but that alone does not prove that it has truly broken with the conspiracy between the cartel and the state.”
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A wave of violence occurred after the death of ‘El Mencho’ in Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, Mexico, February 22, 2026. (Screenshot taken from a social media video. @morelifediares via Instagram/Youtube/via Reuters)
For now, she said, the killing is significant, but not final.
“Unfortunately, history has shown that killing a cartel leader rarely produces lasting stability. It temporarily disrupts command and control,” she said. “Whether this is a true turning point depends on what comes next, particularly whether enforcement moves beyond the prominent cartel leaders and begins to confront the political and financial networks that support them. Until then, this is important, but it is not transformative.”
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