While US-backed negotiations between Russia and Ukraine ended without a breakthrough in Geneva, Kiev made gains on the battlefield, retaking territory at the fastest pace in years through localized counterattacks along the southeastern front.
The progress comes as analysts point to disruptions in Russian battlefield communications and changing operational dynamics, developments that could strengthen Ukraine’s influence even as talks remain stalled.
According to a report by Agence France-Presse, based on an analysis of the situation, Ukrainian forces recaptured about 120 square kilometers in five days. Institute for the Study of War Battlefield Maps. The win represents Kyiv’s fastest territorial progress since the 2023 counter-offensive in the Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions.
UKRAINE SAYS IT CARRIED OUT THE FIRST EVER UNDERWATER DRONE ATTACK ON A RUSSIAN SUBMARINE IN NOVOROSSIYSK
Ukrainian soldiers of the 115th Brigade Mortar Unit conduct mortar training in Lyman, Ukraine. (Jose Colon/Anadolu via Getty Images)
The fighting is concentrated east of Zaporizhia, where Russian forces have steadily advanced since mid-2025. Open-source battlefield monitoring and mapping indicate that Ukrainian forces have moved forward around Huliaipole and nearby settlements, although analysts warn the front remains fluid and some areas are not fully secured. The Telegraaf reports this.
The Institute for the Study of War ruled in mid-February that the counterattacks appear to have taken advantage of disruptions in Russian command and control. ISW said Ukrainian forces are likely using restrictions affecting Russian battlefield communications, including reported restrictions related to the use of Starlink satellite terminals and messaging platforms cited in open-source reporting.
Members of the 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces fly an FPV drone with optical fiber guidance in the frontline city of Kostiantynivka on February 17, 2026. (Iryna Rybakova/Press Service of the 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces/Reuters)
Analysts say reduced connectivity could lead to short windows for Ukrainian units to move through disputed zones typically dominated by drone surveillance and electronic warfare. ISW and other observers emphasize that such opportunities are temporary and do not indicate a broader collapse in Russian defense.
The evolving battle is also shaped by the growing role of drones. In one Special report of February 10, ISW said Russia’s increasing use of first-person-view drones reflects a campaign to “weaponize and institutionalize deliberate harm to civilians as a deliberate instrument of war,” warning that the tactic is becoming embedded in operational doctrine and could influence future conflicts.
UKRAINE STRIKES A LARGE RUSSIAN AMMO DEPOT WITH ‘FLAMINGO’ SMOKE AS TRUMP URGES ZELENSKYY TO MAKE A DEAL
Ukraine fires six FP-5 Flamingo missiles during a night attack on Russia’s 117th GRAU arsenal in Kotluban, Volgograd region. (East2west)
Despite the recent gains, analysts caution against viewing the developments as a decisive shift in the war. Newton argued that sustained Western military support remains essential. “Putin responds to violence,” he said. “The United States and Europe must continue to provide Ukraine with both defensive and offensive capabilities, including long-range systems that can strike deep into Russia.”
Retired Vice Adm. Robert S. Harward said gains on the battlefield are increasingly tied to diplomacy. “Both sides are trying to use progress on the battlefield to strengthen their position at the negotiating table,” Harward said. “It is a sign that neither side is ready to make a deal.”
Harward pointed to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s willingness to hold elections after a ceasefire as evidence that Kiev is showing flexibility as Moscow continues to press its demands. “If a lasting and fair diplomatic agreement is achievable, the current U.S. team is well positioned to help make it happen,” he said. “But the negotiations must be accompanied by sustained pressure on Russia and its partners.”
Russia releases drone footage of an alleged attack by Ukraine on Putin’s home. (Russian Ministry of Defense/Handout via Reuters)
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Nearly two years after Ukraine’s last major offensive stalled, the war continues to be characterized by incremental territorial changes rather than major breakthroughs. Both sides remain heavily dependent on drones, artillery and electronic warfare, with the front lines shifting village by village.
“As US-led talks continue, it is critical to increase pressure on Putin to end the war on terms that restore deterrence and prevent further aggression,” Newton said.
