A new report warns that the total number of war casualties in the nearly four-year war between Russia and Ukraine could reach 2 million by spring 2026. This number includes soldiers killed, wounded or missing on both sides of the conflict.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a report Tuesday predicting the grim milestone. CSIS states that Russia suffered 1.2 million casualties between February 2022 and December 2025, including 325,000 troop deaths. It estimates that Ukraine suffered between 500,000 and 600,000 casualties, including 140,000 troop deaths. CSIS estimates that the current combined number of Russian and Ukrainian victims could be as high as 1.8 million.
It is not easy to get a clear picture of the fatalities on both sides, as neither Moscow nor Kiev provide current data on military losses, according to The Associated Presswhich noted that the two countries are also simultaneously aiming to increase each other’s casualties. Russia has publicly acknowledged the deaths of just over 6,000 soldiers, the AP reported.
The newspaper noted that activists and independent journalists have said reports of military losses have been suppressed in Russian media.
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Ukrainian forces fire a Bohdana self-propelled howitzer at Russian forces at a frontline position in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, on January 23, 2026. (Stringer/Reuters)
“Despite claims of momentum on the battlefield in Ukraine, the data show that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is in decline as a great power,” the report said.
“No major power has suffered anywhere near this number of casualties or fatalities in any war since World War II,” the report said.
The number of casualties and fatalities on the Russian battlefield is “significantly higher” than that of Ukraine, according to the report.
CSIS estimates the ratio to be about 2.5:1 or 2:1. CSIS points to several reasons for the high number of Russian casualties and fatalities, including the country’s “inability to effectively conduct combined arms and joint warfare, poor tactics and training, corruption, low morale, and Ukraine’s effective defense-in-depth strategy in a defense-biased war.” The report also states that Russia has accepted high casualties as part of its strategy.
“Russia’s attrition strategy has accepted the cost of large numbers of casualties, hoping to ultimately exhaust the Ukrainian military and society,” CSIS said in its report.
Russian soldiers train at a shooting range in the Rostov region, Russia, January 19, 2026. (Sergei Pivovarov/Reuters)
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In addition to the high number of victims, Russia is also making “remarkably slow” progress, according to the report. CSIS stated in its report that Russian forces had advanced at an average rate of 15 to 70 meters (49 to 230 feet) per day in their most prominent violations since taking over the military initiative in January 2024. The report’s authors say Russia’s pace is “slower than almost any major offensive campaign in any war in the past century.”
The report comes less than a month before the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Although efforts were made by international mediators, including the US, to end the war, it continued, with both sides suffering casualties.
On Wednesday, Ukrainian officials said two people were killed in Russian attacks on an apartment building on the outskirts of Kiev, the AP reported. In addition, at least nine people were injured in separate attacks on the Ukrainian cities of Odesa and Kryvyi Rih.
The US, Ukraine and Russia are holding a trilateral meeting for the first time in years. (Sputnik/Vyacheslav Prokofyev/Pool via Reuters; Denis Balibouse/Reuters; Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Handout via Reuters)
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Representatives of Ukraine, Russia and the US recently met in the United Arab Emirates for the first trilateral talks since 2022. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a post on
“A lot has been discussed and it is important that the conversations were constructivehe wrote about X, noting that the delegations could have further meetings as early as next week. “As a result of the meetings held these days, all parties agreed to report to their capitals on every aspect of the negotiations and to coordinate further steps with their leaders.”
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
