Isaias Medina, an international lawyer and former Venezuelan diplomat who denounced his own government at the International Criminal Court, described Venezuela as a criminalized state dominated by drug trafficking networks.
“Venezuela today resembles a fortress built on sand wrapped around a criminal regime,” he said, adding that any hypothetical U.S. action would amount to “expelling a terrorist cartel that set up shop next door and not invade a country.”
Medina warned that Venezuela’s dense civilian population – which is also victimized by the regime – demands extreme caution. “The only acceptable approach is an overwhelming preference for restraint and longer operational timelines, abandoning objectives that cannot be gracefully achieved.”
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Soldiers ride in military vehicles during a parade as part of Independence Day celebrations in Caracas, Venezuela, on July 5, 2023. (Pedro Rances Mattey/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
He said the military’s capabilities look better on paper than in reality, with equipment rusting from lack of maintenance and thousands of politically appointed generals disconnected from an estimated 100,000 junior troops who could abandon their posts under pressure.
“You have to break this,” he said. “There is an air-naval component, which could most likely impact our offensive operations,” including fighter jets, limited naval vessels and Russian-made surface-to-air missiles.
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Soldiers march during a military parade celebrating the 205th anniversary of Venezuela’s independence in Caracas, July 5, 2016. (Carlos Jasso/Reuters)
But Montgomery said the US could quickly neutralize them. “We can reasonably eliminate the air and maritime threat to U.S. forces in the first two days of a campaign plan,” he said.
Any U.S. plan targeting cocaine production would begin with “simultaneous attacks on airfields, aircraft and air defense weapons systems to ensure they do not respond to U.S. attacks on other assets.”
Asked whether Venezuela might retaliate after such attacks, Montgomery replied: “Not against an air campaign. No.”
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Members of the Bolivarian National Guard stand in formation along Lake Maracaibo, amid rising tensions with the US, in Maracaibo, Venezuela, on October 26, 2025. (Isaac Urrutia/Reuters)
Montgomery emphasized that while air defenses can be eliminated quickly, a ground operation would be a completely different story. “They have a small professional army… 65 to 70,000 people, many of whom probably don’t want to – they didn’t join the army to fight,” he said. The country also has a huge militia, whose motivation is said to depend on loyalty to Maduro.
But geography and size make a land operation a nightmare scenario. “Venezuela is probably twice the size of California, with 35 to 40 million people,” Montgomery said. “This would be an extremely challenging ground campaign, especially if it turned into a counterinsurgency.”
He added bluntly: “Today I wouldn’t do this. I don’t recommend it.”
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A team of Venezuelan Air Force aircraft fly overhead during the 2025 Industrial Aviation Expo in Maracay, Venezuela, on November 29, 2025. (Pedro Rances Mattey/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
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Montgomery supports an air campaign that he believes will be more efficient than current naval tactics. Citing his experience leading U.S. Navy anti-drug operations, he said: “Any of these 21 ships could have been apprehended by a mix of Navy and Coast Guard assets and helicopters.” But intelligence often proved unreliable.
Despite years of decline, Venezuela still has a large, uneven mix of military equipment. Analysts say this won’t stop a U.S. campaign, but could complicate the early stages.
Soldiers take part in an exercise after President Nicolas Maduro deployed the military across the country to train civilians amid rising tensions with the United States, in Yagua, Venezuela, September 20, 2025. (Juan Carlos Hernández/Reuters)
The inventory reportedly includes 92 T-72B tanks, 123 BMP-3 infantry vehicles, Russian Msta-S artillery, Smerch and Grad missile systems and an estimated 6 to 10 flyable Su-30MK2 jets. Air defense includes the S-300VM, Buk-M2E and Pechora-2M.
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Venezuela’s deepening ties with Iran, Russia and China continue to worry U.S. officials.
Jorge Jraissati, president of the Economic Inclusion Group, said that “figures show that only 20% of Venezuelans approve of this regime,” warning that there has been “no respect for the will of the people” for more than a decade as Caracas aligns itself with “anti-Western regimes that destabilize the region.”
