Iran is facing its worst drought in decades, raising fears of evacuations in Tehran while threatening the regime’s stability and nuclear ambitions, a leading environmental expert said.
Kave Madanidirector of the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health, said Iran’s worsening “water bankruptcy” would impact the country’s functioning and weaken its position on the world stage.
“If they want to stick to their ideology and fight with the West, they have to use and burn their natural resources. So if there is no water, there is less resilience and less resilience.”
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Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sits next to a senior military official in Iran. (Getty Images)
Madani, who has long warned about environmental mismanagement in Iran, said the current water crisis across the country was predictable.
“The water bankruptcy situation did not happen overnight,” he said. “The house was already on fire and people like me had been warning the government for years that this situation would arise.”
President Masoud Pezeshkian warned that without rainfall, Tehran could face a partial evacuation before winter, according to The Associated Press.
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Of the five major dams that supply the capital, one has already dried up and another is functioning at below 8%. AP.
Energy Minister Abbas Alibadi also announced that water supplies will be cut off on some evenings to refill reservoirs, urging citizens to reduce consumption by 20% to avoid rationing.
“The symptoms were already there, and now the flames are unmistakable. We are discussing Day Zero, when the taps would run dry in Tehran and other cities that were once immune to shortages,” Madani said.
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People walk past a large banner with portraits of slain leaders of Iran-linked armed groups, including Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani, in central Tehran, Iran, on May 1, 2025. (MOHAMMADALI NAJIB/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)
“Iran is in a state of water bankruptcy, the result of decades of mismanagement, exacerbated by prolonged drought and climate change,” he added.
Madani also said the collapse of basic infrastructure could lead to greater unrest.
“When people lose water and electricity, you face domestic and national security challenges that even Iran’s enemies, even President Trump or Prime Minister Netanyahu, could have wished would happen.”
Madani warned that the crisis threatens not only its citizens but also Iran’s energy and nuclear infrastructure.
Despite US claims that airstrikes have destroyed Iran’s nuclear facilities, new information continues The New York Times suggested continued fortification at a fortified site known as Pickaxe Mountain.
“If shortages of water and electricity persist, any nuclear program will also be affected,” Madani claimed.
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FILE – This satellite photo from Planet Labs PBC shows the Natanz nuclear power plant in Iran on May 20, 2025. (Planet Labs PBC via AP, file)
“Lack of rain means less hydropower production, leading to both water and power outages,” he said.
The US and its allies have reimposed sweeping sanctions on Iran’s oil exports and banking sector, and the end of the 2015 nuclear deal led to sanctions.
“Moreover, they are faced with the issue of sanctions,” Madani said. “There were already sanctions in place, imposed by the United States, and there were also Security Council sanctions which, as you know, have been reintroduced.”
“Iran is in resistance mode, and remaining in this mode means greater pressure on Iran’s ecosystem, natural resources and water, but it also means greater concerns about food insecurity and dependence on food imports.”
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However, evacuation of Tehran remains unlikely, Madani said. “People have jobs, children go to school, so it can’t happen overnight. The government is hoping for rain, but people are already afraid.”
“Iran is in resistance mode, and remaining in this mode means increasing pressure on Iran’s ecosystem, natural resources and water,” Madani concluded.
