Analysts claim that the withdrawal of US and European troops from countries in Africa’s Sahel, and their replacement with Russian mercenaries, has led to a spike in jihadist-driven terrorism.
The Sahel is a belt of countries that runs roughly from west to east across the continent, just below the Sahara. According to the Global Terrorism Index, a total of 3,885 deaths occurred in the Sahel – approximately 51% of all terrorism-related fatalities worldwide in 2024.
In at least three Sahelian states – Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso – military juntas that came to power through coups, most notably Niger and Mali, have ousted Western forces. The US was asked last year to halt anti-terror drone operations from two bases in Niger after 11 years in the country. French troops were expelled in Mali in 2022 after nine years of fighting Islamist terror groups.
Governments have turned to the Kremlin’s private mercenary army, the Afrika Korps – formerly known as the Wagner Group – for protection. But the Russians are reportedly more interested in mining minerals than helping to stop the spread of jihadism.
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Supporters of Niger’s National Council of Sefeguard of the Homeland (CNSP) hold a Russian (R) and a Chinese (L) flag as they gather at the Place de la Concertation in Niamey on August 20, 2023. (Photo by -/AFP via Getty Images)
Ordinary people are often victims of jihadist attacks in the Sahel. Last month, Islamist gunmen on motorcycles reportedly killed 22 people in an attack on Tillaberi village in western Niger. Fifteen of the dead were families attending a naming ceremony for a child, reports said. In northern Mali, Russian mercenaries are said to have executed ten civilians, including a two-year-old boy, together with government forces in January.
In the Sahel, “groups linked to Islamic State and al-Qaeda continue their territorial and strategic advance,” the Observer Research Foundation reported in August, “exploiting governance gaps and weak security forces to penetrate West African coastal states such as Benin and Togo.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Mozambique President Filipe Nyusi shake hands during a family photo opportunity during the Russia-Africa Summit in Saint Petersburg, Russia, Friday, July 28, 2023. (Alexei Danichev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)
Roggio, who is also editor of the FDD’s Long War Journal, added: “The reality is that the situation was bad before the US and French left the region, but the withdrawal of US and French troops has exacerbated jihadist progress.”
“Both Al Qaeda’s branch in the region, JNIM, (Al Qaeda-affiliated Jama’a Nusrat Al-Islam wa al-Muslimin) and the Islamic State have made gains and controlled key enclaves in the countries. Wanting to take the West out, the juntas in these three countries have turned to Russia to provide security through Wagner, which now ironically Afrika Korps is mentioned.”
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A Boko Haram flag flies from an abandoned command post in Gamboru, abandoned after Chadian forces drove jihadists from the border town on February 4, 2015. (Stephane Yas/AFP via Getty Images)
“The Russian armed forces have little incentive to improve security and focus on securing mineral resources for profit,” Roggio added. “This further fuels the jihadist insurgencies, which are targeting civilians who in some cases are caught between the jihadists and weak to non-existent governments. There is little the US can do at this point, as these governments are anti-Western and do not want a return of US and French troops. And I am not sure either country has the political will or desire to return.”
Russian mercenaries from the Wagner group in Mali, Africa. (East2West)
Cronje continued: ‘The stabilization efforts of France and the US were labeled as imperialist interference and worse. That came on top of the fact that French and American troops were already under heavy pressure in the fight against a jihadist insurgency that threatened the civilian population. One could argue that even without the coup, the Western position was untenable, short of deploying ever-increasing quantities of weapons and ammunition in a war far away from Paris and Washington.”
Cronje agreed with Roggio in his assessment of the Kremlin’s position: “Russian forces have now filled the gap left by the French and the Americans, but the Russian goal is to secure resource supply chains – not civilians.”
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Wagner mercenaries in Mali, December 2023. (East2West)
He concluded: ‘It is difficult to say whether this situation could have been avoided. The only way to achieve this would have been to conduct political and media operations to build popular support for Western actors, then install a pro-Western government and, in addition, vastly increase Western military resources, including troops, deployed in Niger. All a bridge too far for Western actors – and in many ways understandably so.’
