Year in review: how President Trump’s economic agenda is developing so far

President Donald Trump’s economic agenda has so far produced mixed but closely watched results. Economic growth has picked up, inflation has cooled from recent highs and major policy changes are starting to reshape the outlook for businesses and households.

US stocks are rising

Not to mention a strong year for US stocks, with the S&P 500, the stock market’s broadest measure, ending 2025 with a 17% gain.

Here’s a look at the key developments that have shaped Trump’s economy so far.

Strong growth, decreasing inflation

The economy grew faster than expected at the end of 2025, with total output rising at an annual rate of about 4% to 4.5% in the third quarter. Trump administration officials say the growth was driven by Americans spending more money and companies feeling confident enough to invest and hire.

CONSERVATIVE STATES SEE LOWER INFLATION THAN LIBERAL STATES NATIONALLY, WHITE HOUSE DATA SHOWS

At the same time, inflation, the rate at which prices are rising, has cooled.

Prices rose 2.7% in November from a year earlier, less than the 3.1% that economists had estimated.

Together, these trends could shape how Trump and the… Federal Reserve will approach interest rates and the broader economy in the coming months. Market watchers predict the Fed’s first rate cut will come in April 2026 the CME’s FedWatch toolthat tracks the probability of interest rate movements.

Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act

Signed into law on July 4, Trump’s flagship bill One big, beautiful bill (OBBBA) is a far-reaching tax and spending measure that builds on his first term’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) while launching new federal initiatives.

FIVE KEY POLICY AREAS YOU NEED TO KNOW FROM THE ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL LAW

The legislation extends the expiring TCJA tax cuts, prevents a broad tax increase on individuals and permanently lowers income tax rates and an expanded standard deduction. Other provisions are temporarily extended, reshaping the tax landscape for households and businesses.

The bill also paves the way for campaign pledges like “No Tax on Tips” and “No Tax on Overtime” to take effect in 2026, while introducing new long-term savings programs.

IRS DOES NOT TAX TAXES ON TIPS

Big tax refunds

Trump’s economic team is telling Americans to prepare for some of the largest tax refunds in history as a result of provisions in the OBBBA.

“I see us having a huge refund year in the first quarter because working Americans haven’t changed their deductions,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the hosts of “All-In Podcast.” “I think households, depending on the number of employees, could see a refund of $1,000 to $2,000.”

Bessent’s prediction mirrors that of the Tax Foundationa nonpartisan, nonprofit tax policy organization. The group said in a Dec. 17 report that “refunds will be larger than normal in the upcoming filing season due to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) tax cuts for 2025.”

Trump bills

For children, the accounts function just like traditional long-term investment vehicles, but with rules specifically designed to protect young savers. They are only available to people under the age of 18 and are funded through federal seed money, private contributions from families and, where applicable, additional contributions from employers or nonprofits.

Individuals can contribute up to $5,000 per year to a Trump account. Governments and nonprofits can also make eligible contributions. In addition, funds from another Trump account can be rolled over, meaning that money already in one Trump account can be transferred directly to a new or different Trump account without counting against the annual contribution limit.

Employers participating in a Trump Account program can contribute up to $2,500 per year.

Michael Dell (L), CEO of Dell Technologies, and his wife Susan (2nd-L) speak during an announcement of a $6.25 billion donation from the Dell family to ‘Trump Accounts’, in the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on December 2, 202 (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP/Getty Images/Getty Images)

In December, two prominent billionaires joined in funding Trump bills. Michael and Susan Dell were the first to pledge more than $6 billion. Later, investor Ray Dalio joined the cause.

Launch of the ‘Liberation Day’ rates

President Donald Trump announces reciprocal tariffs at an event in the White House Rose Garden. (Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images/Getty Images)

In April, Trump announced sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs aimed at reducing long-standing trade imbalances, revitalizing U.S. manufacturing and strengthening national security. Critics countered that higher tariffs could raise consumer prices and provoke retaliation from trading partners.

TRUMP SAYS TARIFF REVENUES TO FUND $2K CHECKS FOR AMERICANS, AND REDUCE NATION’S $38B DEBT

Still, total excise tax revenues in the 2025 fiscal year ended Sept. 30 were $215.2 billion, according to the Treasury Department’s Customs and Certain Excise Taxes report. That momentum continued into the new fiscal year, with $96.5 billion raised since October 1. This is evident from the treasury data.

The strategy now faces a legal challenge, with the Supreme Court expected to rule in January on Trump’s authority to impose certain tariffs.

The Business – Learning Resources Inc. against Trump and Trump against VOS Selections Inc. – brought by an educational toy manufacturer and a family importer of wine and spirits, focus on whether the International Emergency Act on the Economic Powers grants the president that power or exceeds constitutional limits.

CLICK HERE TO GET FOX BUSINESS ON THE GO

However, the president continues to insist that aggressive tariffs are necessary to address what he sees as years of unfair global trade, a position that shows how determined trade policy is embedded in its broader economic strategy.

Trump has also promised that excise tax revenues could provide funding Dividend of $2,000 for low- and middle-income Americans.