China’s sudden removal of senior military leaders, including allegations that a top general leaked sensitive information to the United States, raises new questions about internal turmoil within the Chinese Communist Party and the readiness of the People’s Liberation Army.
Beijing has not publicly confirmed the spying allegations, but reports published in Western media describe an extraordinary shake-up within China’s military leadership. Analysts warn that the lack of transparency makes definitive conclusions difficult, but say the pattern of removals themselves indicates a system under strain.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping, also general secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and chairman of the Central Military Commission, shakes hands with delegates attending the First Congress of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force Party during his inspection of the PLA Rocket Force, in Beijing, capital of China, September 26, 2016. (Xinhua/Li gang via Getty Images)
Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the nonpartisan Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the developments appear to be driven by political control rather than an imminent move toward conflict.
“This does not mean that a conflict is imminent, but it does show how seriously Xi takes the prospect of having to use the military in the coming years.”
Singleton said some observers have compared the developments to past authoritarian crackdowns, but argued that another historical parallel is more instructive.
‘Some analysts compare these developments to Stalin-era purges of the late 1930s. There are certainly echoes, but I think the closer analogy is Moscow in 1979 – when the political leaders of the Soviet Union pushed for the invasion of Afghanistan despite strong military warnings that this would be unsustainable and would result in a costly guerrilla war.”
He warned that China may now face a similar disconnect between political leadership and military realities.
“Xi’s purges may reflect a similar dynamic: the political urgency to accelerate invasion planning over Taiwan, clashing with a military that senior Chinese officers know is not yet ready.”
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Chinese President Xi Jinping, also general secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and chairman of the Central Military Commission, assesses troops during his inspection of the PLA garrison of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army stationed in the Macau Special Administrative Region, southern China, December 20, 2024. (Li Gang/Xinhua via Getty Images)
“There’s no way to make sense of this right now,” Chang said. “All we can say is that the situation is fluid, the regime is in turmoil and the People’s Liberation Army is probably not ready to carry out major operations as dozens of high-ranking officers have been arrested or removed.”
“This is an extraordinary situation,” he added. “And this means that China, the country itself, and not just the regime, but the country itself is unstable.”
Chang also addressed reports claiming that a senior Chinese general was accused of providing sensitive nuclear-related material to the United States, claims that have not been officially substantiated by Beijing.
“The Wall Street Journal reported that the Ministry of National Defense has accused General Zhang Xiaoxiao of providing technical nuclear material related to China’s nuclear weapons to the United States,” Chang said.
“That’s really extraordinary. It doesn’t sound good either, because General Zhang simply wouldn’t have that many options to pass that kind of material to the US.”
Chang emphasized that his assessment was speculative. “This is just a guess, this is speculation,” he said, adding that such accusations could serve as justification for heavy internal punishment rather than reflect confirmed espionage.
He also pointed to past intelligence failures to underline his skepticism. “We know that the CIA does not have a good track record in China,” Chang said, noting that about 30 CIA assets were executed after their exposure several years ago.
“It would be mind-boggling that the CIA has managed to reconstitute itself and obtain that kind of material from one of the most senior figures in the Chinese regime,” he said. “At this point I have to say I trust, but verify.”
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Members of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy march during rehearsal ahead of a military parade to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, in Beijing, China, September 3, 2025. (Maxim Shemetov/Reuters)
The continued removal of senior officers, Chang argued, points to deeper fractures within the Communist Party itself.
“We are seeing an entire class of leaders being thrown out,” he said, noting that the detained general was the highest-ranking uniformed officer in China and second only to Xi Jinping in the Communist Party’s Central Military Commission. “Arresting and detaining him is extraordinary in itself.”
Singleton said that while purges may weaken China’s military in the short term, they could pose a greater risk over time.
“Purges may affect readiness in the short term, but in the long term they increase political control over the military and reduce dissent, paving the way for riskier decisions in the long term,” he said.
On Taiwan, Chang said a deliberate invasion remains unlikely given the current unrest and the complexity of such an operation.
“I never thought it was likely that China would start hostilities by invading the main island of Taiwan,” he said, citing the challenges of a combined air, land and sea attack and instability within the military.
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The military exercises mobilizing China’s navy, army, air force and coast guard are seen as punishment for Taiwan’s demand for independence. (Daniel Ceng/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Still, he warned that instability does not mean less danger. “Although it is unlikely that China will deliberately initiate hostilities, it is very likely that China will end up in a war,” Chang said.
“It’s not that China deliberately starts it, but that China encounters one.”
“I don’t think Xi Jinping is in a position to de-escalate a situation because of the turmoil in the Chinese political system,” he added.
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US President Donald Trump greets Chinese President Xi Jinping ahead of a bilateral meeting at Gimhae Air Base on October 30, 2025 in Busan, South Korea. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
Taken together, analysts say the military shake-up underlines a growing paradox within Beijing: As Xi tightens political control, instability may deepen rather than fade, raising the risk of miscalculations at a time of heightened regional tension.
