The White House warns in a stark new National Security Strategy that Europe could be unrecognizable “in 20 years or less” due to mass migration, adding that the demographic shift raises doubts about future US allies on the continent.
“If current trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less,” reads the 33-page document released Thursday.
It adds that the “real and grim prospect” is an “extermination of civilization.”
Mass immigration has been one of Europe’s most volatile political flashpoints over the past decade, fueled by repeated waves of immigrants from the Middle East, Africa and South Asia.
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A small boat sails into the English Channel after picking up migrants in Gravelines, France, at dawn on July 2, 2025. (Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)
“As such, it is far from clear whether certain European countries will have economies and militaries strong enough to remain reliable allies,” the document said. “Many of these countries are doubling their current course. We want Europe to remain European, regain its civilizational self-confidence and abandon its failed focus on regulatory stifling.”
The national security plan cites migration policies that are “transforming the continent and causing conflict,” along with “declining birth rates” and the erosion of national identity.
The White House warns that the demographic shift could have major consequences for NATO and European security, noting that several member states could become “majority non-European.” That scenario, the document says, could weaken Europe’s ability to deter adversaries and complicate U.S. efforts to maintain transatlantic stability.
‘In the long term, it is more than likely that within a few decades certain NATO members The majority will become non-European,” the document says. “As such, it is an open question whether they will view their place in the world, or their alliance with the United States, in the same way as those who signed the NATO Charter.”
President Donald Trump sits at the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office. Trump is a persistent critic of European immigration policy. (Yuri Gripas/Abaca/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
The document says Europe’s economic decline is in full swing, losing a 25% share of global GDP in 1990, up from 14% today – “partly due to national and transnational regulations that undermine creativity and industriousness.”
But it says the economic decline is overshadowed by the broader warning of the “wiping out of civilization.” It provides an overview of migration policies, censorship, political repression, declining birth rates and… loss of national identity as the forces driving that trajectory.
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President Donald Trump echoed similar warnings during a visit to Britain last year, saying mass immigration would “destroy Europe” and that the continent “would not survive” unless governments dramatically changed course.
The White House defended the warning, saying Europe is already suffering the consequences of mass immigration.
Kelly said Trump’s border policies “saved America from such destruction,” adding that “other countries would be wise to follow suit.”
The White House pointed to a range of European data to support the administration’s concerns, citing studies showing asylum migration costing the Netherlands €475,000 per migrant, illegal immigration costing France €1.8 billion in 2023 and non-Western migrants committing a disproportionate share of violent crimes in Denmark and Germany. The White House also referred to a series of deadly terror attacks across the continent carried out by migrants.
The 33-page blueprint does not name the author but includes a foreword from Trump, who calls the document a “road map to ensure America remains the greatest and most successful nation in human history.”
The document is part of a sweeping set of national security goals in which the president pledges to enforce the Monroe Doctrine while adding his own corollary aimed at expanding U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere and countering adversaries’ growing footprint.
The Trump administration claims that a “reasonably stable” Western Hemisphere, where governments work together to combat malign foreign influences, is key to US national security. To achieve this, the administration promises in the document to “affirm and enforce a ‘Trump corollary’ of the Monroe Doctrine.”
Former President James Monroe delivered the doctrine in his seventh annual address to Congress on December 2, 1823, warning European powers against interfering in the Western Hemisphere through political influence or colonization. The American Office of the Historianpart of the State Department, notes that although European countries initially paid little attention to Monroe’s statement, it eventually became “a longstanding principle of American foreign policy.”
Migrants aboard a fishing boat arrive at the port of Catania in Italy in 2023. (Fabrizio Villa/Getty Images)
“After years of neglect, the United States will reaffirm and enforce the Monroe Doctrine to restore American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere and protect our homeland and our access to key geographic areas in the region,” the document said.
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“This ‘Trump Corollary’ of the Monroe Doctrine is a common-sense and forceful restoration of American power and priorities, consistent with American security interests.”
