The military strikes of Israel in Syria this week – launched in response to atrocities against the Druze Minority – represent a strategic turning point in a deeper power struggle that is now Iran, Turkey, Israel, Saudi -Aarabia and the US, according to regional analysts.
Just a few days ago, Speculation of Speculation on a potential standardization agreement between Israel and Syria – a breakthrough that was quietly mediated by American officials, but that fragile prospect was quickly overtaken by violence, while Israeli air strikes were reached near Damascus this week.
A ceasefish agreement between Druzen -Futings actions and the Syrian government, announced on July 16, was intended to calm down days of fatal collisions, but it remains weak and largely tireless, with sporadic fighting continuing and tensions that run high.
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Members of the media photograph the aftermath of an Israeli air raid at the headquarters of the Ministry of Defense on July 16, 2025 in Damascus, Syria. (Ali Haj Suleiman/Getty images)
“For the Druze in Israel, what happens in southern Syria as 7 October again,” said Avner Golov, vice -president of the Israeli think tank spirit Israel. “Israel can no longer treat Syria as an adjacent crisis. It is now a homely.”
In a rare scene, Israeli Druze citizens crossed the border to Syria to support their controversial family members – which encouraged a strict warning from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
“My Druze Brothers, Burgers of Israel … don’t cross the border,” said Netanyahu. “You endanger your life – you could be killed, you could be abducted – and you harm the efforts of the IDF. Let the IDF do its work.”
Israeli Druze in the Golan Heights -Mass along the Syrian border on July 16, 2025. Many have violated the border in an attempt to help their Syrian brothers who are locked up in days of ethnic violence against Bedouins and the Syrian army. (Eitan Elhadez-Barak/TPS-IL)
In his first on television on television since the Israeli, Syrian transitional chairman Ahmed al-Sharara approved the Israeli intervention as a destabilizing act.
“Government forces used in Suweida managed to restore stability and forbidden to expel factions despite the Israeli interventions,” he said, warning that the strikes led to “an important complication of the situation” and “a large -scale escalation.” He insisted that the protection of the Druzen -most of the country was a top priority and stated that Syrians “are not afraid of war.”
Within Israel, the collapse of the order in Syria has caused a sharp debate. Some policy makers argue for supporting Sharaa as an anti-Iranian strong man, while others argue for broader military action to create a buffer zone in southern Syria. Golov supports a middle course: conditional strikes combined with requirements for Druze Autonomy and accountability for war crimes.
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A woman waves a Syrian flag while on January 16, 2025 in the old town in the old town in the old town in the old town in the old town of Damascus, Syria are walking in Damascus. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty images)
He also called for a regional diplomatic effort to stabilize Syria. “We need a regional top – the US, Saudi Aarabia, even Turkey and Israel,” he said. “Bring positive forces in Syria and not only use the Israeli military power tactically, but to get diplomatic leverage.”
“There is a temptation to miss the victory round,” says Behnam Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). “Instead of seeing Syria by the prism of competition with Turkey, Israel should first see it through the prism of reduced competition with Iran. That in itself is a huge achievement.”
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks to the media in Baghdad on Monday 22 April 2024 during a joint statement. (Ahmad al-Rubaye /Pool Photo via AP)
Although Iran’s position is weakened, Turkey has quietly expanded its footprint in Syria by supporting the Al-Sharaa government.
The strategic interest of Turkey in Syria, Sinan Ciddi, a senior fellow at FDD and director of the Turkey program, explains, is the filling of the vacuum that Iran has left with its own political and economic influence with the help of the Al-Sharaa regime as a leadership. “Turkey has driven a lot on the success of Al-Sharaa,” he said. “They would like to see more trade, the reconstruction of Syria by Al-Sharaa. They want to use him as a means to influence the region politically.”
However, Israel’s military reaction has caused an alarm in Ankara.
“Turkey is unable to challenge Israel militarily – it would be a disaster,” said Ciddi. “They talk tough, but they are big worries.”
Ciddi emphasized that the aging military hardware of Turkey and the lack of air defense greatly exposes it. Yet Turkey has been deeply invested in the political survival of Al-Sharaa, hoping to use him for influence and economic links in post-war Syria.
A direct collision between Turkey and Israel warned Ciddi, would “result in a diplomatic fiasco … and require that the United States and European countries use as a mediator.”
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Iran: watch, wait and ready to return
While Israel dismantled the most important parts of Iran’s military infrastructure in Syria, Tehran remains a long -term threat. Taleblu said that Iran is now lurking – ready to exploit missteps by others.
“This is a regime that responds to the mistakes of others,” he said. “They don’t have to win downright – they only need everyone to lose.”
Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa meets President Donald Trump and Saudi-Kroonprins Mohammed bin Salman and other officials in Riyad, Saudi Arabia, released in this handout on May 14, 2025. (Saudi Press Agency/Handout via Reuters)
Tehran guesses that the rival powers of the region – Turkey, Israel, the US and the Golf – will exceed their hands, allowing Iran to re -enter through proxies, sectarian militias or diplomatic manipulation.
The United States: withdrawn
Although President Trump recently said that Syria’s internal affairs “are not our war,” the tone of his administration has shifted. State Secretary Marco Rubio called for de-escalation and regional partners insist on a clearer American role.
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“Real success will come from creating unforeseen events,” said Taleblu. “What are the costs if Syria collapses? What if Turkey transfers or overloads Israel? What if Iran returns? The states who prepare for these questions.”
