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The immigration policy of the Trump government has assumed that the “Will be, not be” character of a mediocre romantic comedy, which one day between aggressive enforcement attacks oscillates and the next day of widespread amnesty. What is needed, desperate, is long -term obligation.
The resemblance to the trade agenda is creepy, in the impressive early successes, the problem of continuous instability and the not yet fully realized potential to put the US on a better economic course. In both cases what is most important is not fast and hard retribution for past errors, but clarity for the future – initiating investments today that will yield returns in the coming years.
These challenges are clearer in the trade context. The surprise about how quickly President Donald Trump imposed stiff rates, even in narrow allies, is only surprised about their early success and limited disadvantage. Economists indicated that rates would only strengthen the dollar, which would deny their own effect. The dollar is weakened. Consumers will pay the price, they said. Few price increases to have reaches consumer Not at all. Have the EU and Canada agreed to meet on their tax on digital services. Mexico is pink China from his supply chains. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company changes capital from Japan and to the US.
But fears remain rightly about the costs that come from Trump’s volatile approach and whether the benefits will be dependent on long -term investments. Success depends on certainty about how international trade in the future will work.
If a rate starts at zero, but companies believe that it will reach 50 percent in a few years, they will invest as quickly as when the rate starts at 50 percent. But starting the rate at 50 percent and having companies guess what it will be in the future maximizes the disruption and creates the weakest incentive.
Immigration is more complex, but the challenges are the same. For decades, US economic policy prioritized the steady incoming stream of cheap labor – both legally and illegally – compared to employers who wanted to pay the lowest possible wages. This strategy provided both high profits and cheap goods and services, but undermined opportunities for American employees, discouraged capital investments and imposed enormous costs for communities.
There was no alternative, the American people were told. Regardless of the law, immigrants would continue to flow into the country until “random causes” such as climate change and political instability were resolved; If their number fell, there would be no one to pick the crops and clean the hotel rooms. Here too, Trump has proven that the experts are wrong. Securing the border was a simple issue of law enforcement and deterrence.
In May, the American customs and border patrol has not released A single “illegal alien” in the country, against more than 60,000 in May last year. Estimated 1mn Illegal immigrants have left or removed. From January to June the employment level of native employees rose with more than 2mn, while the born level abroad fell With more than half a million, the reversing of the trend of the past five years, in which employees born abroad were good for almost 90 percent of the job profits. Keep washed in the shopping boards.
But securing the border is only the first step in a successful immigration policy. Here too it is important that illegal immigrants believe that they have no choice but to leave, and companies believe that they have no choice but to start investing in a smaller, more productive and better paid workforce.
Just as the rates helped to shake trading partners out of their sleep and give credibility to American requirements, immigration -raids and hard deportation processes have certainly helped in detecting illegal border crossings and encouraging voluntary departure. But if they remain the center of the agenda, the costs will rise and the benefits will arrive slowly – especially if the administration offers amnesties and new temporary programs for as many employees as employers say they need.
With the border safe, the administration should Focus on a predictable process From enforcement against employers of illegal immigrants. Employees who have been in the country for years and come up voluntarily must receive work permits in the short term that give them and their employers the opportunity to prepare for their final departure. Programs such as the H-2A visa for temporary agricultural employees must be phased out in parallel and the federal government must be the industrial efforts to develop automation technology that American employees can use instead.
Legislation will be the key. The dependence on the executive authority has not only caused legal problems for both trade and immigration agendas, but have also wondered whether employers, immigrants and trading partners will be permanently.
Long -term frameworks must solidify according to a properly established laws to retain the desired transitions. With Trump’s continuous freelancing as an alternative, enthusiasm should grow to achieve a more permanent arrangement. If the Cajole promotion of the congress helps, these chaotic first months will have been worthwhile.
