In a political climate where there is little consensus, there is one exception: China. That country is cited by almost every national security expert as the greatest geopolitical threat to the US. The question is how to coexist without being dependent, how to compete without conflict, and how to protect American producers and consumers while China plays by its arbitrary rules.
No sooner had a meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping been announced than China threatened U.S. access to rare earth minerals. The US responded by threatening an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports.
Most Americans could not imagine why China would take such a provocative step after the two presidents agreed to meet. The Chinese government must be sure that Trump would respond. Xi has been China’s leader for more than a decade, without any sign of easing up.
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Conversely, Trump is almost a year into his final term. China has always played the long game, assuming that the Americans do not have the will to wait out a protracted battle. China thinks patience will win – that Americans won’t be able to keep up the pressure. It may come as a surprise that patience is an overrated virtue and how quickly this government can act.
Chinese President Xi Jinping delivers a speech during the welcome banquet for leaders attending the Belt and Road Forum at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on April 26, 2019. (Nicolas Asfouri/AFP/Getty Images)
The Trump administration has already resolved conflicts worldwide, as evidenced by its history-defying peace deal in the Middle East. The administration has used tariffs and the threat of them to increase U.S. revenues, level the trade playing field, and reposition the U.S. for more domestic manufacturing.
The country has been clear about Venezuela’s threats, repositioned our relationship with Colombia, opened dialogue between Israel and moderate Arab states, bombed Iran’s nuclear ambitions and closed a porous border. All that in less than a year.
The conflict yet to be resolved is in Eastern Europe, and the ‘white whale’ among the remaining trade agreements is China. The two are connected. While the US tried to isolate Russia for its aggression against Ukraine, China provided both military and economic aid to Russia.
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Next on the administration’s agenda is ending Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and negotiating a trade deal with China that can withstand the reality that the problematic forces within the current Chinese Communist Party are not going anywhere.
Even if Xi steps down or declines in power, there is no Chinese equivalent of America’s 22nd Amendment — no constitutional limit on the number of terms or years a leader can serve. That means Beijing’s leadership can remain in power indefinitely, which is a central pillar of the Communist Party’s strategy. The United States must live with that reality while still negotiating from a position of strength to advance our interests.
While recent reports suggest that Xi’s grip may be weakening due to internal purges and speculation about dissent within the Chinese Communist Party, history shows that such reports are often exaggerated. And even if Xi were to fall, his successor would continue the long-term authoritarian policies that characterize modern China.
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China views time and our democratic system as allies in its strategy. The key is to make Beijing understand that Trump’s impatience with that country’s machinations and duplicity is not a weakness, but rather a threat to their own interests.
The Chinese government’s pressure strategy is not limited to tariffs. It extends to the technological front, where the next great battle for world power will be fought.
The Trump administration has already resolved conflicts worldwide, as evidenced by its history-defying peace deal in the Middle East.
Recognizing that Chinese dominance in communications and artificial intelligence poses an existential threat to American security, the Trump administration has moved to aggressively end Beijing’s control of critical infrastructure.
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For example, the Justice Department has taken decisive steps to counter the dominance of Huawei, a company controlled by the Chinese Communist Party, in global telecommunications. Huawei still controls the global telecom market (and, by extension, the AI and 5G future) and has been repeatedly caught with backdoors and security vulnerabilities by the Department of Defense and our security services.
To level this playing field, the Trump administration – working with US intelligence officials – has approved the merger between HPE and Juniper, which will make America a credible competitor and give it a real chance to outmaneuver China while securing critical communications infrastructure.
There were opponents of this merger – both the usual suspects and a few new ones. The Democrats’ attorneys general, led by Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser, are crying foul, but doing so without access to the information needed to make an informed decision. Too often, deep-seated contempt for the president has replaced reasoned consideration of the realities of national security.
When the president perceived national security threats in computer chips, he took the unprecedented step of partnering with Intel. Unconventional? Yes. But these are not traditional times, and the next conflicts will not be waged in conventional terms.
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While progress has been made with China both practically and in principle, more needs to be done. That’s why the president and his economic, trade and national security teams are willing to meet with China. Next could come tightening export controls on other sensitive technologies and strengthening military partnerships in the Indo-Pacific to deter Chinese ambitions.
Beijing has watched Trump revive NATO, end several wars, impose tariffs and meet intended pain with imposed pain. Beijing has seen patience when warranted, power when necessary, and an overarching preference for peace.
While recent reports suggest that Xi’s grip may be weakening due to internal purges and speculation about dissent within the Chinese Communist Party, history shows that such reports are often exaggerated.
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Don’t confuse diplomacy with weakness and discussion with a lack of resolve. Trump can make peace, create a level playing field, stop intellectual property theft, punish currency manipulation, and enable healthy, fair competition even among perceived adversaries.
The fact that someone seeks peace does not mean that he is not preparing for a world without peace. China would be wise to know that while democracy limits a person’s time in office, it does not reduce the speed with which actions can be taken to preserve that democracy.
