Donald Trump’s plan to rig the 2026 election so that Republicans can retain the majority in the House of Representatives was a plan all along stupid idea.
Political scientists who have studied the effects of gerrymandering have found that gerrymanders do not manipulate elections or capture majorities.
In 2023, Yale’s Institution for Social and Policy Research (ISPS) and Harvard University analyzed all possible simulations of national gerrymandering scenarios.
Taken together, the data shows that most of the electoral bias at the national level is negated, resulting in only a two-seat advantage for Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives compared to what could have happened under geographic and legal constraints.
Gerrymandering cannot manipulate the House or create a voter-proof majority, but what it can do is create structural disadvantages in up to eight House seats, making it more challenging for Democrats to win those seats.
Trump thought he could rig the election and create a Republican majority that couldn’t be voted out of office.
That’s not how gerrymandering works. Gerrymandering is bad because it makes it harder for voters to be heard.
Trump doesn’t understand any of this, which is why he threw a tantrum on Sunday about Republicans in Indiana refusing to redraw their congressional districts.
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