President Donald Trump has seen recent setbacks in his poll numbers on many issues, but one bright spot in the surveys is his aggressive approach to Venezuela, including taking out drug cartel boats. But there is another goal at work here, one that could help end the war in Ukraine.
What is important to understand is that Venezuela is a client state of Russia, just like Iran, and just like Syria until the recent overthrow of Bashar al-Assad. One by one, Trump has proven that Putin, despite American power, cannot protect his vague global friends.
President Donald Trump greets Russian President Vladimir Putin as he arrives at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, on August 15. Trump has been briefed on a peace plan to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
“Russia’s record with allies like Iran, Syria and now Venezuela reveals a familiar pattern,” Peter Doran, adjunct senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told me. “The Kremlin will make generous statements of support, but provide minimal support when real threats to its clients arise.”
Noting how thin Putin is being stretched by the war in Ukraine and US sanctions, Doran said: “Keeping Maduro in power is a bridge too far for Moscow if President Trump pushes the issue.”
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You can almost see Trump’s top Ukraine negotiator, Steve Witkoff, saying to his Russian counterpart, “How’s your boy Maduro doing? Looks like he’s having a hard time. I wish we could help…”
While Putin is killing Ukrainians and perpetuating the largest European land war in generations, Trump is weakening Russia’s global power. Syria is nice to America, Iran has been denuclearized and now it is leaving Venezuela.
Russian cargo planes have been spotted flying into Venezuela in recent weeks. No one is ever sure if they are there to deliver supplies, or perhaps at some point transport Maduro to an early retirement in Moscow, where al-Assad now resides.
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It’s a telling situation, because the whole reason Putin invaded Ukraine was because he believes the country is under Russia’s influence. But without putting a single soldier in the fight, the United States has rallied support for Ukraine, which has stymied the Russian dictator.
For nearly four years, Putin has sent his own armies into a meat grinder, employed North Korean mercenaries and spent more treasure than in all the “Pirates of the Caribbean” films combined. It did little to break the impasse.
Compare that with the American situation regarding Venezuela. We can take out Maduro tomorrow and Putin can’t do anything about it.
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In fact, this week’s new Trump Administration National Security Strategy statement doubles down on the Monroe Doctrine-style policy of putting the Western Hemisphere first and foremost in our security objectives.
But rightly putting our own backyard first does not mean Trump or America are leaving the world stage. In fact, the opposite is true.
Soldiers with painted faces march during a military parade to celebrate the 205th anniversary of Venezuela’s independence in Caracas, Venezuela, July 5, 2016. (Carlos Jasso/Reuters)
Trump understands the global chessboard. He knows that while a direct conflict with Russia could lead to a global war, picking off the Kremlin’s rogue states at the edges is fair game and puts pressure on the center of that administration.
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“President Trump’s big approach to Venezuela is reminiscent of Theodore Roosevelt’s approach to the region. Instead of gunboat diplomacy, Trump is deploying supercarrier diplomacy,” Doran told me. “A quiet retirement abroad is the best option for Maduro before the options narrow further. Putin will not be able to save him.”
Trump has put Putin in an incredibly difficult position here. If the dictator stays true to his fantasy of reclaiming all of Ukraine and thus restoring the Soviet Union, he risks the United States undermining its allies and clients around the world.
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Russia may face the choice of regaining its territorial integrity at the cost of no longer being a global superpower.
Trump proves once again, as he once told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, that he holds all the cards. Right now he’s playing them masterfully, tightening the noose around Russia as his geopolitical allies are taken out one by one.
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At last week’s Cabinet meeting, Secretary of State Marco Rubio described Trump’s foreign policy as transformational, “because for the first time in a long time we have a president who is actually putting America at the forefront of every decision we make in our dealings with the world.”
In Venezuela, the War Department is indeed playing a strike, as Trump promised, but the opponent is not really Maduro, but Putin, who may soon find out that one of his pariah allies has been removed from the board forever.
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