Blaise Misztal, vice president for policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), said the past year confirmed a long-standing strategic lesson. “2025 underscored what Middle East observers have long known, and U.S. policymakers never seemed willing to admit: that strength is the currency of empire and that there is no substitute for American leadership,” he said.
Israeli political analyst Nadav Eyal said the shift was undeniable. “What we have seen in 2025 is an increased role for the United States, rather than a withdrawal,” Eyal said. “It delivered a hostage agreement and a ceasefire in Gaza. It brought a certain level of stability to Syria. We are seeing increased cooperation with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.”
“The idea that the US is out of the Middle East has just gone out the window,” he added.
THE WHITE HOUSE MOVES TO EXPAND THE ABRAHAM AGREEMENTS AFTER THE STABING OF ISRAEL AND HAMAS
President Donald Trump poses with the signed agreement at a summit of world leaders on ending the Gaza war, amid a US-mediated hostage swap and ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, October 13, 2025. (Suzanne Plunkett/Pool/Reuters)
Gaza: the ceasefire and the hostages
In 2025, the Trump administration brokered a ceasefire that ended the two-year war in Gaza and returned all Israeli hostages except Ran Gvili’s body, which is still in the hands of Hamas. The deal initially met with great skepticism within Israel.
President Donald Trump traveled to both Israel, where he addressed the Knesset, and Cairo to finalize the deal, coordinating with Arab leaders and mediators in a complex process that included an exchange of Palestinian terrorists in Israeli prisons for hostages.
“There is absolutely no doubt that without President Trump’s intervention, this could have gone on much longer, or perhaps not ended at all, or could have ended in tragedy,” Eyal said, adding that the administration fundamentally changed what was thought possible.
“He expanded the realm of possibility,” Eyal said. “If someone had told us six months earlier that this would be the framework of the deal, and that all living hostages would be back home within 72 hours, we would have said it was a great idea, but Hamas would never agree with that.”
Israeli hostages released under the Trump-brokered ceasefire met with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. (The Hostages and Missing Families Forum)
According to Eyal, the breakthrough came from Israeli military pressure combined with US insistence and regional coordination. “Israel’s military pressure, enabled by the White House, together with the White House’s insistence and the efforts of Qatar and Turkey, achieved the breakthrough,” he said.
Misztal also argued that the outcome was not solely the result of diplomacy. “The relative peace that the region now enjoys, after two years of war, is not the result of diplomacy, which on its own failed to stop Iran’s nuclear advance or convince Hamas to return Israeli hostages,” Misztal said. “It is the result of the willingness of Israel and the US to use force, and to do so together in pursuit of common objectives.”
“Operations Rising Lion and Midnight Hammer, coupled with the Israeli attack in Doha, have paved the way to peace,” he added.
The ceasefire remains fragile but intact, with the US now deeply involved in shaping the post-war phase in Gaza.
US military will oversee the next phase of the peace deal from its coordination base in Israel
President Donald Trump met with seven hostages freed from Hamas captivity on March 7, 2025. (Photo provided by Hostages Families Forum)
Regional shock waves
On December 8 last year, after Israel defeated Hezbollah, the Assad regime in Syria collapsed, signaling a dramatic shift in the regional balance of power.
That momentum continued into 2025. Operation Rising Lion, known as the 12-Day War, underscored Israel’s air superiority, with Israeli aircraft attacking Iranian military infrastructure and eliminating senior IRGC commanders.
The campaign also highlighted the deep coordination between the US and Israel, which culminated in a US strike that targeted Iran’s nuclear program and curtailed Tehran’s ability to support its allies.
Smoke rises from a building of the Soroka hospital complex after it was hit by a missile fired from Iran in Be’er Sheva, Israel, June 19, 2025. (AP Photo/Leo Correa)
Eyal said Iran is now entering a period of great uncertainty. “Iran will undoubtedly try to rebuild its influence after its proxy system was destroyed,” he said. “It was defeated in the war with Israel and lost most of its nuclear program.”
Two questions dominate now. “Can Iran rebuild its alliances, its prestige and its sources of power, such as its nuclear program or air defense, and re-stabilize itself as a regional power?” Eyal asked. “The deeper question,” he added, “is what happens to the regime.”
He described Iran as increasingly unstable, with a devastated economy and growing public discontent. “It seems that almost everything is ripe for a substantial change in Iran,” he said. “Whether the Islamic Republic can survive without major reforms, or whether there will be a coup or counter-revolution, will take us well into 2026.”
FIVE POSSIBLE FUTURES FOR THE MIDDLE EAST FROM RENAISSANCE TO ROCKETS
This satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies shows damage to the Fordow enrichment facility in Iran after US attacks, June 22, 2025. (Maxar Technologies via AP)
“The sands of the Middle East are always moving”: what to expect in 2026
Eyal said the past year has forced a reckoning over the future of Hamas. “In 2025, Israelis, and to some extent countries in the Middle East, woke up from the fantasy that Hamas would completely cease to exist as a functioning body,” he said.
“Everyone understands that there will be some kind of Hamas presence, and unfortunately they will have some kind of armed force,” Eyal added. “The question is: to what level can you reduce it?”
WALTZ SHIFTS ‘NIGHT AND DAY’ IN THE MIDDLE EAST AS TRUMP’S GAZA PLAN REFORMS THE REGION
Palestinians amid the rubble of destroyed buildings in the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza on February 10, 2025. (Mahmoud ssa/Anadolu via Getty Images)
At the same time, he emphasized the magnitude of Hamas’s losses. “In 2025, they suffered massive defeats and were wiped out as a functioning military body,” Eyal said. “This is the year it happened.”
“Even after they lost half of Gaza, Gaza was destroyed and the hostages returned, they still function as a military organization,” he added. “That means they are incredibly resistant or flexible.”
Misztal warned that calm will not last without continued US involvement. “The sands of the Middle East are constantly moving,” he said. “Today’s calm will not last unless consistent efforts are made to maintain it.”
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Hamas terrorists stand in formation to watch the transfer of three Israeli hostages to a Red Cross team in Deir el-Balah, central Gaza, on February 8, 2025. (Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
He warned that there could be renewed pressure from multiple fronts in 2026. “Opponents will try to reassert themselves and find new advantages,” Misztal said. “Iran will test the limits of US and Israeli patience and ISIS or other Sunni extremists may try to launch a spectacular attack to mark their comeback.”
“These will all be a test of US willingness to continue applying the ‘peace through strength’ approach,” Misztal said. “If Washington takes its eyes off the region, the progress of the past year could quickly be lost.”
