Operation Epic Fury has resurfaced an old claim: that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the Gulf monarchies are weak, artificial states that will fail under pressure. Each time it was tested, this argument was found to be false. It is now being disproven again, as Iranian ballistic missiles cross Gulf airspace, UAE defenses intercept most of them and daily life continues down there. At this point the fragility thesis needs no refutation; it needs a thorough investigation.
An alert issued by the UAE Ministry of Interior warning residents of Dubai and Abu Dhabi of a possible Iranian missile attack appears on a mobile phone shortly before a missile was intercepted in Dubai on March 5, 2026. (FADEL SENNA/AFP via Getty Images)
This statement usually comes from two very different groups: the Muslim Brotherhood and some Western academics. For the Muslim Brotherhood, the idea that Gulf monarchies are illegitimate and temporary is not just a political message. It is a core part of their worldview. In the early 20th century, Muslim Brotherhood founder Hassan al-Banna rejected hereditary monarchy as a valid Islamic model. The Brotherhood’s vision of empowerment only applies if the current rulers are seen as morally deficient and destined to fail. In this view, stability in the Gulf is not just an inconvenience; it poses a direct ideological threat.
This is especially true in the UAE. The Emirati model is not only politically anti-Brotherhood; it is also culturally anti-Brotherhood. The UAE lives an Islam that is tolerant, orderly and comfortable with diversity and pluralism. This matters because it quietly undermines one of the Brotherhood’s core claims: that political Islam is the only way to achieve dignity, authenticity and justice in a Muslim society. A prosperous, stable Muslim-majority state that embraces religious coexistence not only challenges that idea; it shows that it is outdated.
The skyline in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on Monday, September 1, 2025. Abu Dhabi has been trying to profile itself for years as an attractive alternative to neighboring Dubai. Photographer: Vidhyaa Chandramohan/Bloomberg via Getty Images (Vidhyaa Chandramohan/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
That is why symbols such as the Abrahamic Family House are important. The Abrahamic Family House, a mosque, church and synagogue on one campus in Abu Dhabi, is not just a branding effort. It represents a clear statement about the type of country the UAE is. It reflects values ​​that Americans understand: religious coexistence, public order and the idea that prosperity and tolerance can support each other rather than compete. This shared value system is one reason why the US-UAE partnership has grown steadily over the decades, from Desert Storm to the current conflict. It is these shared values ​​of prosperity, pluralism and security that, as a Jew, make me proud to call the UAE my second home. It is a country where I have never felt physically unsafe to practice my faith. It offers a unique opportunity to meet people from diverse cultures and provides a secure base from which to do business worldwide.
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The anti-UAE versions of the fragility narrative were promoted by prominent figures, and not just fringe voices. In 2014, Qatar-based ideologue Yusuf al-Qaradawi condemned the UAE on Qatari television as anti-Islamic. In December 2024, his son, Abdulrahman, spoke in Damascus and expressed hope that the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt would fall. Al Jazeera Arabic, especially under former director Wadah Khanfar, often provided a platform for this perspective, portraying the UAE and the broader Gulf Cooperation Council as unstable and lacking moral integrity.
The Western academic version of this thesis had a different tone, but often reached similar conclusions. In a book, After the Sheikhs, author Christopher Davidson, a fellow at Britain’s Durham University, predicted in 2012 that most Gulf regimes could collapse within two to five years. In 2011, Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a Middle East fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, warned that a “perfect storm” could destabilize Gulf societies.
A plume of black smoke rises from a warehouse in the industrial area of ​​Sharjah City in the United Arab Emirates following reports of Iranian attacks in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Sunday, March 1, 2026. (Altaf Qadri/AP Photo)
Later, the International Crisis Group, a nonprofit conflict management organization, described the Gulf as divided and unstable. This was not a conspiracy, but an analysis based on a flawed assumption: that rentier states, dependent on oil wealth, must be weak at their core. The mistake was to confuse governance issues with a lack of real state power.
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This error has become abundantly clear during the current conflict. When Iranian missiles crossed the Gulf on March 1, the fragility story came up again. Analysts describe the Gulf’s economic models as weak and fragile. Tehran seemed to believe this too. The decision to target Dubai, a city with limited direct US military presence, was a calculated move, hoping that disruption would cause panic. Iran misjudged the Gulf’s business model, assuming this was also its weak point.
The UAE held its ground, as did the Gulf in general. Exchanges reopened and airports resumed operations. Qatar, despite years of mediation between Tehran and Washington, DC, shot down two Iranian Su-24s that approached its airspace. This was an important event and showed that the Gulf States are not passive under pressure. Under the right circumstances, they will respond.
As of March 10, the UAE had received more than 250 ballistic missiles, more than 1,400 drones and eight cruise missiles. Layered air defense, developed through extensive planning and investment, has performed at a level that few countries have been able to achieve. U.S. THAAD and Patriot systems, South Korea’s Cheongung II in its first combat deployment, Israeli-developed Barak-8 batteries, and U.S.-operated assets have intercepted more than 90% of incoming threats. The number of fatalities is minimal. Cafes remain open, the roads are busy and people do not flee. Many openly express their loyalty to the country.
These are not signs of a mirage. They indicate a state that was being prepared.
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The explanation goes deeper than just military hardware. Yes, the UAE invested early, diversified wisely and built one of the most advanced defense structures in the region. At the same time, something less measurable, but just as important, was also achieved: a working social agreement. More than 200 nationalities live in the UAE. Most stayed during Covid, and they stay because of rocket attacks, not out of obligation, but because they really feel at home. This quiet sense of belonging, within a state with a confident Muslim majority that embraces differences, is an important basis for the Emirati’s resilience.
The UAE is not a fragile mirage. It is an oasis of fortress: pluralistic, orderly, heavily defended, and backed by one of the strongest security partnerships the United States has in the region. Critics have repeatedly predicted its collapse. Instead, the country has demonstrated endurance, legitimacy and strength under pressure, as have the broader Gulf Cooperation Council countries.
