Generally speaking, no one outside the brunch spots in Washington DC cares much about what happens in think tanks. But the recent upheavals at the Heritage Foundation aren’t just making news, they may also provide a framework for what the Republican Party will look like after President Trump leaves office.
The current turmoil at Heritage, the nation’s top conservative think tank, began on October 30, when President Kevin Roberts gave a speech defending Tucker Carlson for interviewing a snarky young Holocaust denier.
“The Heritage Foundation did not become the intellectual backbone of the conservative movement by dissolving our own people or policing the consciences of Christians, and we will not start now,” Roberts said.
Heritage Foundation Chairman Kevin Roberts. (Tom Williams/CQ-Getty Images)
A wave of outraged resignations followed almost immediately, even after Roberts apologized for his comments, but last week, nearly two months later, nearly an entire department of Heritage’s legal and economic experts switched to former Vice President Mike Pence’s Advancing American Freedom (AAF).
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The important question in all of this is whether Robert’s playing footsie with anti-Semites is the real or only reason why so many top pundits have joined the exodus to Pence’s team, and there is some reason to have doubts.
Take, for example, Trump’s zealous use of tariffs in international trade. This kind of protectionism is constitutionally anathema to the very type of conservative economist who prowled the halls of Heritage, but the think tank itself stood behind the president’s policies.
Former Vice President Mike Pence, (l.), and President Donald Trump (Getty Images)
Add to this that Heritage appears to be leaning heavily on Vice President JD Vance’s 2028 presidential ambitions, in fact Roberts’ original video may have been intended for the veep with close ties to Carlson who has made fighting globalism and saving small industrial towns the centerpiece of his national message.
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The problem is that most of the old Heritage economists really like globalism and think that rescuing “Nowhere, Ohio” from oblivion is a pipe dream. Now they really don’t have a seat at the table, either at Heritage or in the Trump administration.
Such tensions also exist in the areas of foreign policy and immigration, and a cynic might suggest that the Heritage hemorrhage is just an example of conservatives with strong ideological differences over Trump deciding that keeping friends with him no longer works, and taking all the current moral outrage as a way out.
This is exactly what Pence did after the January 6, 2021 Capitol riots, prompting him to create AAF, which, by the way, is as anti-tariff as the day is long.
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In this battle for the soul of the Republican Party and the conservative movement, both Heritage and AAF are redefining in important ways what a think tank is and what it does.
Traditionally, wealthy donors gave money to men with good hair to get elected and also funded bald men at think tanks, who were rarely seen or heard, to produce actual policy. But voters have seen through this, allowing the think tanks to reach the public more directly.
The Heritage Foundation has seen a mass exodus in recent months. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
Going into the 2024 election, Heritage’s “Project 2025” was headline news for months, something completely unprecedented in the history of presidential politics for a think tank. Today, through initiatives like the hiring of Moms for Liberty co-founder Tiffany Justice, Heritage is pushing for more populism and activism and less backroom algebra.
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AAF is starting to play this game too. The think tank posted a satirical
The headwind the AAF will likely encounter among conservative voters in their anti-populist efforts is that populism is popular, while globalism, along with many other core tenets of the pre-Trump Republican Party, is not.
The best opportunity for AAF, and it’s not a bad one, is to focus on lowering prices by cutting rates. But a conservative think tank shouting that prices are too high while the Republican Party controls the White House and Congress is a nightmare for mid-term Republican hopes.
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The more important question is what else do American voters want: bigger discounts on foreign goods from China or functional communities where they can raise their families? For the AAF to succeed, it must focus on the latter, not just the former.
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In Vance’s, and increasingly Heritage’s, vision of America, our small industrial towns see a revival through tariffs and foreign investment. In AAF’s view, these cities can continue to wither, but Americans are free to move to places where there are jobs and abundance.
Neither proponent of these views can guarantee the success of their proposed programs, but the “save our cities” side is currently in power and on the rise. If AAF wants to change that, it will take more than moral outrage. It should convince Americans that globalism really wasn’t that bad, and that it’s time to return to it.
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