At least I succeed in keeping Trump (at least explicitly) out of the most important pieces of today, who are concerned that the EU comes with a number of strange things about what it wants to do to Global Trade Governance and the Fromeur between Brussels and Beijing. Mapped waters, Where we look at the data behind World Trade, it is on stock prices.
Von der Leyen goes on a limb
The trade secrets considered of the European Commission of Ursula von der Leyen and the president himself, assuming that I must have one, is that she is generally quite sensible, if not spectacular, on the market. Occasionally, however, she gets a stream of blood to the head and promises something that refuses and/or impractical. An example was her first meeting with Trump in 2020, in which she promised a promised Quick-Fire Deal “In a few weeks” About trade, energy and technology. That caused a number of raised eyebrows, if not spitting coffee, occupied by the trade directorate in Brussels in Charlemagne.
Predictable it came to nothing. Neither, almost certain, will her quixotic claim last week that the EU worked on reforming or even replacing the World Trade Organization. The German Chancellor (and colleague -Christian Democrat) Friedrich Merz continued and explicitly wondered whether the EU could work together with trading partners to create something that, and I quote, “replaces institutionally what we had actually already suggested with the WTO by an institution by an institution mechanismeismeisismeismeisismeismeisisme by an institutione mechanismelling An institution by an institution by an institution by an institution by an institution by an institution by an institution that was supposed to be the WTO “.
I go on a limb (in my opinion a relatively short and sturdy) here) and say that this is useless freelancing that will not happen. This is why.
The vehicle of Change von der Leyen and others have mentioned is cooperation between the EU and the Asia-Pacific CPTPP-Pact, which has been a lot of chatter in recent months. This chatter is the reality for, as people in the CPTPP have noticed me. I was told that everything that is practical between the EU and CPTPP is currently a reformulation of the principle of compliance with WTO rules, especially because no one wants to really break cover and make Trump furious.
Apart from the obvious large differences in the approach of certain issues (food safety, data transfer), the CPTPP and the EU are legal colosses with their own control books and dispute settlement systems, practiced and tightened in the case of the EU and hardly tested in the CPTPPs. Even if you have moored them considerably with each other in one way or another, you would have a management structure with the exception of India and most likely China. (That is, unless China has in the meantime joined the CPTPP, of which several CPTPP members are challenged and which would certainly proceed with the EU.) Worldwide trading administration without the US, China and India is not entirely Hamlet Without the prince, but it certainly is Waiting for Godot Without three from Estragon, Vladimir, Pozzo and Lucky – and with a similar resolution that has been delayed indefinitely.
More fundamentally, an attempt to supplement or replace the WTO founder, on the same problem that the WTO itself has. If large trading powers do not want to make rules in vital areas and adhere to them, it does not matter which structure you make. If India Point-Blanco refuses to discuss environmental issues in the WTO, it will not become a member of a new gang to do this. (Admittedly, it would not be able to block plurilateral deals that are assumed like in the WTO. But it would be a difficult thing to create legally binding plurilaterals outside.)
If China wants to use his leverage over rare earths unilaterally, it will not allow a multilateral framework to limit it. China loves the WTO, but largely because it enables it to touch multilateralistic poses without actually having limited its state capitalist system through the rules.
Proposing some fundamental reforms, or even a new WTO, means that we are back with our well -known old friend, “technocratic solutions for political problems”. It is a discourse that has seized thousands of hours of serious seminar discussions and millions of words from thinking pieces and on-Eed in the course of the decades, but is not really somewhere. Anyway, in a small way the WTO system received a boost last week when the UK decided to drop its somewhat unpleasant performative restraint and Become a member of the Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Regulation (MPIA)The WTO Appellate Body solution set up after the US has paralyzed. Well done big -Britain. Nice to see that you made it.
The from between Brussels and Beijing
In the meantime, back in the world of Realpolitik, another of the interventions of Von der Leyen would be earlier this month Free cross with China. She is an instinctive atlanticist and China-septic, so Beijing’s recent behavior has given her the opportunity to at least release the second of those tendencies. Almost three months after China announced it was that Restriction of rare exports of the Earth – And these limitations are much more binding than earlier – It is increasingly difficult to claim that the EU is accidentally entangled in the explosion, instead of being a secondary target together with the primary brand, the US.
Yes, China gave suppliers to Volkswagen for those costly licenses, but it has also subjected European and American companies to extraordinary invasive requirements for information. The country tries to portray itself as constructive and multilateralistic, but that is not convincing anyone in Brussels. This Recently From the Morning Post details in South China how China’s charm offensive did not work in the EU.
If Beijing tries to peel the EU from the alliance with the US, it does not work well. If it is true, the US and China try to correct countries in their geo -economic herd, they both do this mainly with sticks instead of carrots.
At this pace, the EU China summit in July is probably a pretty tense affair. The EU has begun to use its new range of weapons against China – the international purchasing instrument And the regulation of the foreign subsidies and it is always alert to use the Anti-Coercion instrument (ACI), which would really be a big problem.
Again: we are not in a new bipolar cold war. Instead, it is a pattern of shifting and distributed faith, whereby the large forces often give priority to immediate self -interest rather than the careful construction of alliances. It will be an endless bumpy ride.
Charged waters
Who knows what stimulates financial markets nowadays? (Do they think there are no big new rates? Do she think the economy will do well?) Anyway, the big funk in US shares compared to European shares is now almost over.
Trade tires
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The leading economies in the world have closed a deal to save the largest companies in the US to pay more corporation tax abroad, so that the status of the largest global tax deal is questioned in more than a century.
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Last week I wrote about how the US chose to lose the race for technological advantage in renewable energy sources and other green goods. If to underline the point, the US Senate not only cuts credits for wind and solar energy, but actually impose new taxes About future projects. Elon Musk, in his new role in the wilderness, is against.
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The FT reports on Asian companies that try to avoid Trump’s rates, and on how the rates and cuts in aid harm the poorest economies in the world.
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The UK has negotiated partial exemptions of Trump’s rates for his car industry. But Lotus, one of his iconic manufacturers, is still packing and going, and apparently closes his factory in Eastern -England to move to the US.
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This is not explicit to do with the trade, but me liked this piece By neoconservative Bill Kristol about how the American audience stands up against Trump, but not elites. It is remarkable how little public pushback has been there from companies and business associations to the trade policy of the US president.
Trade Secrets is edited by Harvey Nriapia
