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From the very first Christmas, the holiday has been associated with gift giving. But this seasonal generosity has never abandoned the old moralistic tendency of classifying people as more or less deserving. In many traditions, Santa Claus is a ledger, labeling children as good or bad. But what if Sinterklaas did the same for economic governance? Which countries – and leaders – would receive gifts or lumps of coal?
The US president could end up on the naughty list. Although the global economy has weathered Donald Trump’s chaotic policymaking, most analysts are quite confident that economic activity is there and markets would have done even better without it. After all, he has upended the global trading system, created enormous legal uncertainty, undermined confidence in the US dollar and neglected both the shaky US public finances and the affordability crisis facing most of the population.
Perhaps also a lump of coal for Britain. Eighteen months into power, the Labor government has raised taxes, rolled back efforts to streamline benefits and increased uncertainty with its lackluster communications in the run-up to the budgets. Hiring and investment have been dismal. It promised to stimulate growth and bring stability. So far it has delivered neither.
China is a tricky one. Santa Claus might admire its manufacturing prowess and innovativeness, as well as the methods it took to achieve it. But as the record $1 trillion trade surplus in the first eleven months of 2025 shows, Beijing has not done enough to reduce its dependence on external demand. The country has tempered its efforts to boost domestic consumption through social reforms, appears unable to move away from its massive subsidy-led industrial model and has failed to clean up the fallout from the bursting housing bubble.
It is more difficult to identify the nice than the naughty. But Trump’s America First agenda has forced many countries to make rapid and dramatic reforms. Take India. After the US president imposed punitive measures on the country, the country implemented reforms to simplify the system of internal state taxes. Last month, the country also passed a long-advocated labor market reform package that promises to ease compliance burdens on companies, improve flexibility and increase security for workers.
Honorable mentions also go to several countries on the southern edge of the eurozone. Spain, Portugal and Greece have achieved respectable post-pandemic growth rates, partly due to painful public finance reform efforts over the past decade. Spain’s continued welcome of immigrants and its ability to integrate them into the labor market has made the country the standout economy in Europe this year. The next challenge is to boost productivity growth. With few exceptions, previous fiscal and monetary reforms in several emerging markets have kept them resilient amid Trump’s trade war.
Then there is the difficult case of Germany. The welcome reform of the debt brake, which had curbed domestic demand, is long overdue. The country has made budgetary choices to realize a promised boost in defense spending. A number of recent reforms, including faster infrastructure planning and more sustainable pensions, are helpful. But this still falls short of the country’s challenge. And at the EU level, Berlin has been of little help, mainly by ensuring that the phase-out of combustion engines is reversed by 2035. It’s tempting to ask Santa if a name can be on both lists.
Of course, everyone no longer believes in Santa Claus; and political leaders should not rule for gold stars. In fact, sound policymaking often provides little immediate reward, justifies difficult choices, and rarely pleases everyone. The hope for this Christmas is that leaders will opt for reforms next year because they work, and not because they win presents.
