The November 4 off-year election was a landslide Democratic victory. This is the first and most important lesson Republicans should learn from the results.
In the elections in New York City, New Jersey, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Georgia and California there was a huge wave in favor of the Democrats. Governor Gavin Newsom’s victory in California will certainly determine the 2026 midterm elections. Still, there were some local Republican victories, such as that of New York’s Nassau County executive, that gave the GOP hints for a better future — if Republicans are willing to study and learn from them.
President Donald J. Trump suggested that his name not being on the ballot was a major factor in the outcome. That may be true, but it doesn’t solve anything for Republicans. His name will also not appear on the ballot in 2026 and 2028. If Republicans don’t learn how to connect with, motivate, and elevate more Americans, we’re in for a huge Democratic comeback in the next election.
Part of the 2025 results are consistent with a principle I learned from President Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984 – and from the Contract with America campaign of 1994. Gulf elections carry everything with them. The deeply flawed and vulnerable Democratic candidate for Virginia attorney general won — despite writing about killing the Republican Speaker of the Virginia House of Representatives and hoping his children would die. The larger Democratic wave carried him beyond his own despicable behavior.
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New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani campaigns in the Brooklyn borough of New York, on Tuesday, November 4, 2025. (Adam Gray/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Republicans want newly elected New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani to become the future of the Democratic Party. But the outcome of the 2025 election suggests that newly elected governors Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey are much more likely to lead the party. The centrists return. This could encourage Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro to run in 2028.
If you look closely, Spanberger and Sherrill have a surprising amount in common. Both have national security backgrounds (one as a CIA operative, the other as an Annapolis graduate serving in the Navy). Both are mothers (Spanberger has three children, Sherrill has four). Both campaigned as moderates and, when necessary, simply lied about the radical components of their record.
In reality, Spanberger and Sherrill’s victories represent the reemergence of the Obama formula. Former President Barack Obama perfected his campaign as a moderate while governing as a liberal, sometimes radical policymaker. It made perfect sense that Obama did not support Mamdani. It would have weakened Obama’s image as a sympathetic centrist.
WHAT THE RESULTS OF THE 2025 ELECTIONS COULD MEAN FOR DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS
There was another feature of Democrats’ victories that Republicans have historically struggled to learn: the power of message discipline. In New York, New Jersey and Virginia, the Democrats’ mantra was affordability and the economy (the most important issues affecting Americans). Republicans tried to raise social issues, such as men in girls’ sports.
If they focus on this issue, Republicans should make the economy their mission.
The fact is that the economy is losing to them. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act created enormous incentives for investment in America. Trump’s tariffs will ultimately shift the balance toward U.S. production rather than foreign. And he has been personally involved in selling products and signing up capital investments.
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If this all works, there should be a Trump boom by July 2026. If that happens, the Republicans will control the economic issue and the Republican Congress will be safe. However, if the economy is anemic or underperforming in 2026, Democrats will almost certainly win the House of Representatives by a significant margin.
If Republicans study and take Tuesday’s lessons to heart, the long-term drift toward the Republican Party will continue. But if Republicans refuse to listen to the entire American people (and not just their supporters)—and focus only on what the Democratic winners did wrong (and not on what they did right)—the Trump majority could be much shorter and less effective.
Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill during an election night event in East Brunswick, New Jersey, on Tuesday, November 4, 2025. (Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
In 1980, Reagan won a landslide election. Two years later, Republicans lost 26 seats in the House of Representatives and seven governorships. A bad economy and some real communication failures (including scaring seniors about Social Security) led to a dramatic setback for Reagan. In 1983, former Vice President Walter Mondale was ahead of Reagan in some polls. However, the Reagan team thought methodically about where the American people stood – and what they wanted to do. In 1984, Reagan recovered and won 49 states.
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In 1990 there was a weak economy. The Republican Party was demoralized by President George HW Bush breaking his “Read My Lips: No New Taxes” promise. The result was a disappointing off-year election. Republicans lost a seat in the Senate and four incumbent governors from the Republican Party were defeated. Dissatisfaction with both parties led to two independent governors being elected. The victory in the House of Representatives would have been bigger because the Democrats had a 7.8% voting advantage, but the Democrats had a majority of 267 to 167, so it was difficult for them to win many more seats.
If they focus on this issue, Republicans should make the economy their mission. The fact is that the economy is losing to them.
The difference between 1982 and 1990 was that the Reagan team understood that they had to change course to win in 1984. The Bush team simply couldn’t bring themselves to face how unhappy their base was – and how big the scale of change would have to be to win re-election. As a result, Ross Perot ran as a third-party candidate and helped end twelve years of Republican presidential ascendancy.
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The big question for President Trump and the Republicans is: will they listen to the American people and, like Reagan, learn what went wrong? Or will they shrug off a bad election and stumble forward without serious introspection, like Bush?
Time will tell which one today’s GOP will take.
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