The Iranian regime is in serious trouble. Thanks to the decisive actions of President Trump and the State of Israel, the Islamic Republic is no longer the regional power it once was and is now facing crises on all fronts. Iran’s military infrastructure has been severely compromised, and its illicit nuclear program has been severely decimated. The network of allies across the Middle East is disintegrating: Hezbollah is severely reduced in numbers; the Assad dynasty has collapsed; Iran-backed militias in Iraq are facing increasing political and public backlash; and Hamas is a shadow of its former self.
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The domestic situation is also bleak. Thanks to chronic economic mismanagement, corruption and international isolation, the economy is in ruins, and so is the country no more water. Lacking popular legitimacy and incapable of delivering results for its people, the regime’s only remaining instrument of control is rule by fear.
Despite these many weaknesses, there are still so many people in the West who continue to work under the misconception that there is no alternative to the current government.
The Iranian people have made their preferences abundantly clear in repeated waves of uprisings. They don’t want a theocracy or a monarchy – they want a republic that is free, democratic and accountable to its citizens.
This is wrong on every level. It erases the aspirations of millions of Iranians who have risked their lives to demand change. It ignores the existence of a well-organized, democratic opposition that has fought the mullahs for more than forty years and prepared for the day after the fall of the theocracy. And it perpetuates the regime’s propaganda that the West must tolerate its brutality because the alternative is chaos.
The Iranian people have made their preferences abundantly clear in repeated waves of uprisings. They don’t want a theocracy or a monarchy – they want a republic that is free, democratic and accountable to its citizens.
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Iran’s organized pro-democracy movement has the capacity, popular support, and systematic plan needed to replace the dying, murderous mullahcracy with a government that reflects the will of the Iranian people. This force for positive change has a credible blueprint for a democratic Iran that includes free elections, the rule of law, the separation of religion and state, and a pledge not to use nuclear weapons.
This movement does not want American troops on the ground or any form of external regime change. It has asked only that the United States and its allies support the Iranian people’s demand for self-determination and deny the regime access to the resources on which it depends for survival.
We know from history that the fall of authoritarian regimes often seems impossible until it suddenly comes upon us. When I served as a cavalry officer in West Germany in the late 1980s, the idea that the Berlin Wall would fall just a few months after the end of my tour would have seemed like science fiction, but that is exactly what happened.
PRESIDENT TRUMP’S HISTORIC PEACE PLAN COULD REFORM THE MIDDLE EAST – BUT WE NEED TO ACT FAST
Even after almost fourteen years of civil war, no one predicted the fall of Assad in Syria, yet it seemed to crumble overnight. Today, Iran’s dictatorship is showing the classic signs of fatigue that herald the end of a regime: economic exhaustion, internal fragmentation, waning deterrence, and a population no longer willing to live under clerical rule.
The task for US policymakers is not to predict the exact moment when the regime will collapse, but to shape the environment so that when the regime falls, the outcome will be stability rather than chaos. This requires an approach that is rooted in realism and that is willing to abandon the failed diplomatic formulas of the past.
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The latter characteristic has characterized President Trump’s Iran policy in both his first and second administrations. He now has the opportunity to cap his historic achievements in the Middle East with a truly transformative achievement and help hasten the demise of the Iranian regime.
The benefits of such a shift would be incalculable. Terrorists would lose their primary sponsor; America’s adversaries would lose a key outpost in the Middle East; incredible economic opportunities would emerge in the maritime and energy sectors; and a highly educated, globally connected Iranian population could emerge as a natural economic and political partner for the United States.
No outside force can or should influence regime change within Iran – that is a job for the Iranian people. But we can help them by increasing external pressure and supporting the Iranian people who are seeking a peaceful, democratic, pro-Western future in their desire for change.
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Our task is simple: support the Iranian people, recognize the democratic vision they have chosen, and deny the ruling clerics the money, legitimacy, and impunity on which they depend to survive.
When the day of change comes – and it will – the US must put itself in the best possible position to reap the benefits and enter a new era of friendship with the Iranian people.
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