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Traders on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are betting on the federal one government shutdown will last about six weeks as the parties’ stalemate shows few signs of easing.
While the odds on these markets do not serve as formal predictions, they do provide a real-time snapshot of traders’ expectations.
According to Kalshi market data, on average, traders expect the shutdown to last around 44 days.
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Online prediction market Kalshi tracks how long traders expect the government shutdown to last. (Kalshi)
Traders estimate a 44% probability that the shutdown will last until November 15, and a one-in-three chance that it will last beyond November 20.
The trading volume, or total dollar amount wagered on this market, is just over $12.7 million.
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Meanwhile, traders on Polymarket are betting that the government shutdown will end around mid-November.
The majority of traders, about 44%, expect the stock market to close after November 16, with just over $147,000 wagered on that outcome.
Online prediction market Polymarket shows a prolonged government shutdown. (Polymarkt)
The federal government was shut down at 12:01 a.m. ET on October 7.
Since 1976, the US government has experienced twenty shutdowns. The longest government shutdown, which lasted 34 days – from December 2018 to January 2019 – stemmed from a conflict over presidential funding Donald Trump‘s border wall.
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Since 1976, the U.S. federal government has experienced twenty shutdowns. (Hu Yousong/Xinhua/Getty Images / Getty Images)
Senators failed to break the deadlock for the tenth time on Thursday, leaving the government shutdown unresolved.
Meanwhile, the House has been postponed since September 19 and is not expected to meet again until after the shutdown ends.
